The Kansas City Fed’s Tenth District Manufacturing Composite Index held steady at +1 in August 2025, unchanged from July and up from -2 in June, signaling broadly flat activity.

• Production improved to 0 (from -3), while the Number of Employees Index rose sharply to 0 (from -11), indicating stabilization in labor conditions.

• Shipments strengthened to +6 (from +3), though the Backlog of Orders remained deeply negative at -15 (from -30), reflecting weak demand momentum.

• The Average Employee Workweek turned positive at +3 (from -9), showing modest gains in hours worked.

• Prices Paid for Raw Materials eased to +37 (from +41), but Prices Received for Finished Products edged higher to +21 (from +18).

• New Orders for Exports stayed weak at -15 (from -13), while Materials Inventories slipped to -7 (from +8), pointing to leaner supply management.

Natural gas storage levels increased 18 Bcf to 3,217 Bcf last week, below expectations of a 26 Bcf increase. Inventory levels are down -3.4% YoY (vs -2.9% YoY last week) and are now up 5.0% compared to the 5-year average (vs 5.8% last week).

Pending home sales fell -0.4% MoM in July 2025 but were up +0.7% YoY, showing modest year-over-year improvement despite regional divergences.

• The Northeast saw sales decline -0.6% MoM and -0.6% YoY, marking weakness on both measures.

• The Midwest dropped -4.0% MoM but was up +1.3% YoY, reflecting a sharper monthly fall but better annual momentum.

• The South was essentially flat (-0.1% MoM) but gained +1.8% YoY, showing steady improvement.

• The West rose +3.7% MoM but declined -1.9% YoY, highlighting short-term strength amid softer annual comparisons.

• NAR’s survey showed 16% of members expect higher buyer traffic (unchanged YoY), while 21% expect higher seller traffic, up from 17% last year.

Drewry’s World Container Index fell -6% WoW to $2,119 per 40ft container, marking an 11th straight weekly decline as post-tariff volatility continues.

• Shanghai–Los Angeles spot rates dropped -3% to $2,332/feu, while Shanghai–New York fell -5% to $3,291/feu, reflecting weaker US retail demand after the early peak season.

• Asia–Europe routes also softened, with Shanghai–Rotterdam down -10% to $2,661/feu and Shanghai–Genoa down -5% to $2,842/feu, as vessel oversupply outweighed solid demand and port delays.

• The rate slide follows a sharp May–June surge triggered by US tariffs, with declines persisting through July and into late August.

• Drewry expects further near-term weakness as the supply-demand balance deteriorates, with added uncertainty from potential new US tariffs and penalties on Chinese ships.

US real GDP grew at an annualized rate of +3.3% in Q2 2025, revised up from +3.0% in the advance estimate, following a -0.5% contraction in Q1.

• The upward revision reflected stronger investment and consumer spending, partly offset by weaker government spending and higher imports.

• Personal consumption growth was 1.6% at a SAAR in the second estimate, revised up from 1.4%.

• The decline in private investment was revised up from -15.6% in the 1st estimate to -13.8%.

• Federal government consumption growth was the weakest since 2022 Q1 at -8.5% as nondefense spending growth was the weakest since Q2 2021 at -14.3%.

• Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose +1.9% (revised up +0.7 ppts), showing firmer underlying private demand.

• The gross domestic purchases price index increased +1.8% (revised down -0.1 ppt), while the PCE price index rose +2.0% (also revised down -0.1 ppts) and core PCE held steady at +2.5%.

• Real gross domestic income (GDI) jumped +4.8% after just +0.2% in Q1, bringing the average of GDP and GDI to +4.0%.

• Corporate profits rebounded +$65.5 billion in Q2, reversing part of the -$90.6 billion decline in Q1. The increase in profits was driven by a $59.1 billion increase in the nonfinancial sector.

US initial jobless claims fell -5k to 229k in the week ending August 23, in line with expectations, while the 4-week moving average rose +2.5k to 228.5k.

• On an NSA basis, initial claims declined -2.9k to 191.3k, broadly in line with the prior year level of 192.7k.

• Total continued claims (SA) decreased -7k to 1.954 million (vs 1.97 million expected) in the week ending August 16, while the NSA measure fell -10.5k to 1.945 million.

• The insured unemployment rate held steady at 1.3% (SA and NSA), up slightly from 1.2% a year ago.

• The 4-week moving average of continuing claims increased +4.5k to 1.956m, remaining above the 1.866m level of the prior year.

• Federal employee claims (UCFE) eased -54 to 581, though they were higher than the 284 seen a year earlier.

India’s industrial production rose +3.5% YoY in July 2025 (from +1.5% YoY in June), supported by manufacturing gains despite sharp mining weakness.

• Mining output fell -7.2% YoY, while manufacturing grew +5.4% YoY and electricity rose +0.6% YoY, showing sectoral divergence.

• The IIP index stood at 155.0 in July 2025 (vs. 149.8 in July 2024), with manufacturing at 156.9, mining at 107.7, and electricity at 221.5.

• Fourteen of 23 manufacturing groups posted positive growth, led by basic metals (+12.7% YoY), electrical equipment (+15.9% YoY), and non-metallic mineral products (+9.5% YoY).

• Within basic metals, strong gains came from MS slabs, HR coils/sheets, and alloy steel flats; electrical equipment growth was driven by heaters, switchgear, and small transformers.

• By use-based classification, Infrastructure/Construction Goods (+11.9% YoY), Intermediate Goods (+5.8% YoY), and Consumer Durables (+7.7% YoY) were top contributors, while Primary Goods declined -1.7% YoY and Consumer Non-Durables were nearly flat (+0.5% YoY).

The EU Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) edged down in August 2025 (EU: -0.3 pts to 94.9; euro area: -0.5 pts to 95.2), while the Employment Expectations Indicator (EEI) improved slightly (EU: +0.6 pts to 98.1; euro area: +0.3 pts to 97.8), with both indicators below their long-term averages.

• Spain saw the sharpest ESI drop (-2.6 pts), followed by Germany (-1.0) and Italy (-1.0), while the Netherlands (+3.5) and Poland (+0.5) posted gains; France was stable (+0.1).

• Industry confidence fell -0.2 pts as weaker production expectations outweighed stable order books; managers’ export order books also worsened.

• Services confidence slipped -0.3 pts on lower past demand assessments, partly offset by improved future demand expectations.

• Consumer confidence declined -0.3 pts, reflecting weaker household financial outlooks, though intentions for major purchases improved.

• Retail trade confidence inched up +0.2 pts, while construction eased -0.3 pts, with fewer citing insufficient demand but more pointing to labor shortages.

• Selling price expectations fell in industry, retail, and construction, but rose again in services; consumer inflation expectations for the next 12 months increased.

• The Economic Uncertainty Indicator eased -0.4 pts to 16.9, with lower uncertainty in services, industry, and retail, but slight increases in construction and among consumers.

Euro area M3 money supply growth edged up to 3.4% YoY in July 2025 (from 3.3% YoY in June), supported by stronger M1 growth while marketable instruments slowed.

• M1 growth rose to 5.0% YoY (June: 4.7%), contributing 3.2 ppts to M3 growth, while M2–M1 deposits contracted -0.8% YoY and marketable instruments eased to +6.4% YoY (June: +10.4%).

• Household deposits increased +3.4% YoY (prev 3.3%), and deposits by non-financial corporations accelerated to +2.7% YoY (prev 1.6%).

• Deposits by investment funds fell sharply to +6.3% YoY (prev 13.1%), limiting overall momentum.

• Claims on euro area residents grew +2.1% YoY (prev 2.0%), with government claims accelerating to +0.6% YoY while private sector claims held at +2.7% YoY.

• The growth of adjusted loans to the private sector was 2.8% YoY in July, down from 3.0% YoY in June.

• Adjusted loans to households rose to +2.4% YoY (prev 2.2%), and loans to non-financial corporations edged up to +2.8% YoY (prev 2.7%).

Italy’s consumer confidence index declined -1.0 pts to 96.2 in August, with all subcomponents weakening.

• Economic climate dropped -1.2 pts to 97.0.

• Personal climate fell -1.0 pts to 95.9.

• Future climate declined -1.7 pts to 92.2.

• Current climate eased -0.5 pts to 99.2.

Italy’s business confidence index (IESI) was unchanged at 93.6, though sector trends diverged.

• Manufacturing confidence slipped -0.4 pts to 87.4, as weaker production expectations and higher inventories outweighed improved order books.

• Construction confidence declined -1.0 pts to 101.3, with order books deteriorating, though employment expectations improved.

• Market services confidence rose +1.2 pts to 95.0, supported by stronger order books, business trends, and expectations.

• Retail trade confidence fell -2.9 pts to 102.8, driven by weaker sales assessments and expectations, alongside rising inventories.

France’s trade sales volume rose +0.5% MoM in June 2025 (after -0.5% in May), with gains in wholesale and motor vehicle-related trades while retail trade remained flat.

• Wholesale trade (ex-motor vehicles) increased +0.8% MoM (prev -0.6%), driven by “other specialised wholesale” (+3.3%) and a sharp rebound in metals and metal ores (+16.3%).

• Wholesale & retail trade and repair of motor vehicles/motorcycles rose +0.4% MoM (prev -1.3%), led by motor vehicle parts (+0.8%), though motorcycle sales/repairs fell -2.8%.

• Retail trade (ex-motor vehicles) was unchanged MoM, as specialised stores (-0.5%) declined, offset by rebounds in non-specialised stores (+0.5%) and non-store retail (+1.1%).

• Within retail, sales fell in “other goods in specialised stores” (-1.1%) but rose for automotive fuel (+1.5%).

• In Q2 2025, total trade volumes rose +0.8% YoY, with retail up +3.4% and wholesale +0.4%, while motor vehicle trade fell -2.9%.

• Early estimates suggest July retail trade (ex-motor vehicles) will remain stable MoM, but sales for May–July were +3.4% YoY.

Japan’s total machinery orders fell -3.6% MoM in July but were up +3.6% YoY, both in line with the preliminary estimates, with domestic demand weakening while foreign demand provided moderate support.

• Domestic demand dropped -11.1% MoM and -0.7% YoY, led by declines in general machinery (-18.4% MoM), while motor vehicles (+15.9% MoM) partly offset the fall.

• Total machinery orders were down -10.4% MoM and -1.2% YoY in July, and in the first 7 months of the year, orders are down -7.8% compared to the same period last year.

• Aircraft orders posted strong gains (+107.8% MoM, +115.5% YoY), offsetting some of the weakness in other machinery categories.

• Foreign demand edged down -0.4% MoM but rose +5.3% YoY, continuing to underpin overall orders.

• Sales decreased -6.7% MoM but grew +2.4% YoY, with sales of NC machine tools tracking a similar pattern (-6.2% MoM; +2.2% YoY).

• Backlog orders rose +1.1% MoM but declined -10.9% YoY, showing a continued erosion of pipeline momentum despite monthly stabilization.

EU new car registrations fell -0.7% YTD through July 2025 but rose +7.4% YoY in July, reflecting modest recovery amid structural shifts in fuel mix.

• Battery-electric cars reached 1.01M units YTD (+15.6% share, up from 12.5% in 2024), with strong gains in Germany (+38.4%), Belgium (+17.6%), and the Netherlands (+6.5%), while France declined -4.3%.

• Hybrid-electric registrations climbed to 2.26M units (+34.7% share), supported by growth in France (+30.5%), Spain (+30.2%), Germany (+10.7%), and Italy (+9.4%).

• Plug-in hybrid sales rose to 561,190 units (8.6% share vs 6.9% in 2024), with sharp increases in Spain (+94.5%), Germany (+59.2%), and Italy (+60.3%).

• July YoY gains were broad: battery-electric (+39.1%), hybrid-electric (+14.3%), and plug-in hybrids (+56.9%), marking the latter’s fifth straight month of strong growth.

• Petrol registrations fell -20.1% YTD to 28.3% share, led by France (-33.6%) and Germany (-25.9%), while diesel dropped -26.4% YTD to 9.5% share, with both fuel types also contracting in July YoY.

Japanese investors were net sellers of foreign long-term debt securities for the second straight week with net selling totaling ¥167.2 billion last week.

• Japanese investors went back to selling foreign equities with net selling totaling ¥306.1 billion.
• Foreign investors of Japanese assets were also net sellers last with equity sales totaling ¥496.8 billion and long-term debt sales of ¥106.0 billion.

Australia’s private new capital expenditure rose 0.2% QoQ in Q2 2025, with modest gains across both equipment and building investment.

• Equipment, plant & machinery capex increased 0.3% QoQ, contributing to the overall rise.

• Buildings & structures capex rose 0.2% QoQ, showing steady but limited growth.

• Mining sector capex fell -1.4% QoQ, while non-mining investment rose 0.9% QoQ, highlighting sectoral divergence.

• Estimate 3 for 2025–26 capex was revised up 12.0% to $174.8b, pointing to stronger investment intentions compared with Estimate 2.

UK car production rose +5.6% YoY in July 2025 to 69,127 units, the second consecutive monthly increase, though total vehicle output fell -10.8% to 72,006 units due to a sharp -81.1% drop in commercial vehicle output.

• Car production for domestic and export markets grew +13.6% and +3.7% YoY, with exports accounting for 79.4% of output.

• The EU remained the top destination (45.6% share), followed by the US (18.1%), China (7.7%), Turkey (7.2%), and Japan (3.4%).

• Shipments declined to the EU (-7.9% YoY) and China (-7.1% YoY), but exports to the US rose +6.8% (nearly 10k units), reversing three months of declines, supported by the UK–US trade deal effective June 30.

• Turkey (+35.4% YoY) and Japan (+14.9% YoY) saw strong gains, while other top-10 markets (Australia, Canada, Korea, UAE, Switzerland) made up only 6% combined.

• Year-to-date vehicle output is down -11.7% at 489,238 units, though independent forecasts see a +6.4% rebound to 803,000 units in 2026, aided by the DRIVE35 strategy and competitiveness measures.

Total Vehicle Manufacturing

Car Manufacturing

Commercial Vehicle Manufacturing

U.S. M&A deal activity decreased in July, going down 3.6% with 1,038 announcements compared to 1,077 in June. However, aggregate M&A spending increased. In July, 58.5% more was spent on deals compared to June.

• In terms of M&A deal activity, 4 of the 21 sectors tracked by FactSet saw an increase in M&A deal activity over the past three months relative to the same three-month period one year ago: Non-Energy Minerals (83 vs. 61), Electronic Technology (82 vs. 67), Technology Services (742 vs. 732) and Miscellaneous (19 vs. 15).
• On the other hand, 17 of the 21 sectors tracked by FactSet saw a decrease in M&A deal activity over the past three months relative to the same three-month period one year ago. The five sectors that witnessed the largest declines in M&A deal volume were: Finance (594 vs. 699), Distribution Services (107 vs. 161), Health Services (79 vs. 121), Producer Manufacturing (175 vs. 209) and Industrial Services (181 vs. 206).

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell -2.4 million barrels (vs -2.0 million bbls expected) in the week ending August 22 to 418.3 million barrels, about 6% below the 5-yr seasonal average, reflecting continued supply tightness.

• Total commercial petroleum inventories declined -4.4M bbl, led by draws in motor gasoline (-1.2M bbl) and distillates (-1.8M bbl), while propane/propylene rose +1.7M bbl.

• Refinery inputs averaged 16.9M bpd (-328k bpd WoW), with utilization at 94.6%; gasoline production rose to 10M bpd, while distillate output fell -112k bpd.

• Crude imports decreased to 6.2M bpd (-263k bpd WoW) and were down -0.4% YoY on a 4-week average basis.

• Motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9M bpd over the past four weeks (-1.1% YoY), while distillate demand rose +7.7% YoY and jet fuel demand increased +1.7% YoY.

• Total products supplied averaged 21.2M bpd (+2.5% YoY), signaling steady overall demand despite weaker gasoline consumption.

The new-vehicle sales pace in August 2025 is forecast at 16.0 million (SAAR), down from July’s 16.4 million but well above last year’s 15.1 million, with EV demand driving the gains.

• Sales volume is projected at 1.46 million, up +3.9% MoM and +2.3% YoY, aided by one extra selling day versus July.

• EV sales surged in July (+26.4% MoM; +19.7% YoY to 130,082 units), the second-highest monthly total ever, with August expected to continue strong as buyers move ahead of tax credit expiration.

• Incentives on EVs reached record highs in July, with 11 brands achieving their best EV sales of the year.

• Market conditions remain supported by low unemployment, a strong stock market, and muted tariff-driven price increases.

• Looking ahead, sales momentum is expected to slow in Q4 as EV tax credits expire, inventories tighten, and auto prices gradually rise.

Canadian business sentiment held broadly steady in Q3 2025, with 66.7% of firms optimistic about the next 12 months, though cost pressures, tariffs, and hiring challenges continue to weigh on operations.

• Cost-related obstacles were expected by 62.2% of businesses (vs 65.4% in Q2), with inflation cited by 45.2% and cost of inputs by 25.4%.

• Nearly 40% of businesses expect to pass tariff-driven cost increases to customers over the next 12 months, up from 24.9% that had done so in the past six months.

• Only 13.8% of firms expect sales to rise in the next three months (vs 16.2% in Q2), while 18.9% expect declines and 20.6% anticipate raising prices.

• Just 14.5% of businesses plan to adopt AI in the next 12 months (vs 10.6% in Q3 2024), while 66.7% have no plans, mostly citing irrelevance to their operations.

• Nearly one-fifth (16.0%) of firms saw higher sales of Canadian products in the past six months, led by retail (40.7%), wholesale (33.1%), and accommodation/food services (30.2%).

The MBA Mortgage Applications Composite Index edged down -0.5% WoW as mortgage rates remained basically unchanged last week.

• The Purchase Index increased 2.2% WoW, while the Refinance Index offset that increase with a -3.5% WoW decline.
• Total purchase applications were down -0.1% WoW but up 25.1% YoY, and total refinance applications dropped -3.5% WoW but were up 18.6% YoY.
• The 30-year fixed mortgage rate edged up 1 bps to 6.69%, and the 15-year fixed mortgage rate increased 7 bps to 6.03%.

OECD GDP grew 0.4% QoQ in Q2 2025 (prev 0.2%), while G7 GDP also accelerated to 0.4% QoQ (prev 0.1%), with country-level growth showing mixed patterns.

• US GDP rebounded +0.7% QoQ (prev –0.1%), supported by a sharp –10.3% drop in imports after an 11.0% surge in Q1, though inventory drawdowns offset some gains.

• France and Japan both improved modestly, with GDP rising to 0.3% QoQ (prev 0.1%).

• UK growth slowed to 0.3% QoQ (prev 0.7%), weighed by –1.1% investment contraction (prev +2.0%).

• Germany (–0.3% QoQ, prev +0.3%) and Italy (–0.1% QoQ, prev +0.3%) both contracted, with German exports falling –0.6% after +3.0% in Q1.

• Outside the G7, Ireland saw a sharp slowdown (–1.0% QoQ, prev +7.4%) while Denmark swung to +1.3% QoQ (prev –1.3%).

• OECD GDP growth held steady at 1.7% YoY, with the US at +2.0% YoY (unchanged) and Germany the weakest at +0.2% YoY.

UK retail sales volumes declined for the eleventh straight month in August, with the CBI Distributive Trades Survey showing a net balance of -32% (vs -34% in July), though the pace of contraction is expected to ease in September.

• Sales for the time of year were judged “poor” at -19% (vs -10% in July), and are projected to remain weak in September (-20%).

• Retail sentiment stayed negative, though less severe, with business expectations at -10% for the next quarter (vs -29% in May).

• Employment continued to fall at -14% (vs -15% in May), with headcount cuts expected to accelerate to -19% in September.

• Selling prices rose sharply at +65% (vs +35% in May), the fastest pace since Nov 2023, but growth is expected to ease in September (+43%).

• Orders to suppliers fell sharply at -40% (vs -21% in July), with another steep decline expected in September (-32%).

• Online sales were flat at +3% (vs +4% in July) but are set to contract heavily next month (-35%).

• Wholesale sales declined -25% (vs -32% in July) and are expected to fall steadily again in September (-26%).

• Motor trades sales contracted at a slower -30% (vs -70% in July), with the same pace projected for September.

• Stocks relative to expected demand strengthened to +23% (vs +12% in July; avg +17%), though are seen easing next month (+16%).

Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate Indicator is forecast to fall -1.9 pts to -23.6 in September 2025 (from -21.7), marking a third straight monthly decline amid weakening income and economic expectations.

• Income expectations dropped -11.1 pts to 4.1, the lowest since March 2025, reflecting rising fears of unemployment and job insecurity.

• Economic expectations fell -10.1 pts to -7.4, their lowest in six months, as concerns over tariffs, inflation, and weak domestic momentum grew.

• Willingness to buy edged down -0.9 pts to -10.1, remaining near rock-bottom levels last seen in February 2025.

• The savings indicator slipped slightly to 15.8 (from 16.4), but remained elevated, signaling continued consumer caution.

• Inflation expectations rose for a second month, reflecting geopolitical risks and concerns over higher energy prices.

China’s industrial profits fell -1.7% YoY to ¥4.02 trillion in Jan–Jul 2025, with continued weakness in mining offset by modest gains in manufacturing and services-related industries.

• State-owned firms’ profits dropped -7.5% YoY, while joint-stock enterprises fell -2.8%; private (+1.8%) and foreign-invested firms (+1.8%) recorded gains.

• By sector, mining profits plunged -31.6% YoY, while manufacturing rose +4.8% YoY and utilities grew +3.9% YoY.

• Sharp declines persisted in coal mining (-55.2% YoY), oil & gas extraction (-12.6% YoY), and chemicals (-8.0% YoY), while strong gains came from food processing (+14.5% YoY), electrical machinery (+11.7%), and electronics (+6.7%).

• Profit margins narrowed to 5.15% (down -0.21 pp YoY) as costs rose +2.5% YoY, faster than revenue growth (+2.3% YoY).

• July alone saw profits fall -1.5% YoY, while receivables (+6.8% YoY) and longer collection periods (+3.7 days YoY) pointed to ongoing financial strain.

Australia’s total construction work rose 3.0% QoQ to $76.1 billion in Q2 2025, with engineering driving growth while building activity was broadly flat.

• Engineering work increased 6.1% QoQ and was up 8.5% YoY, providing the main boost to overall construction.

• Building work edged up 0.2% QoQ and 1.6% YoY, with residential building +0.1% QoQ (+5.3% YoY) and non-residential +0.3% QoQ but still -4.0% YoY.

• The trend estimate for total construction fell -0.7% QoQ, indicating underlying momentum remains weaker than the headline figures suggest.

• The trend estimate for building work rose 0.4% QoQ, signaling modest resilience despite year-over-year divergence between residential and non-residential activity.