Global
/
Commerzbank
Commerzbank Research
About
Publications
859Germany - Orders give hope
Nov 05, 2026
Big win for Democrats
Nov 04, 2026
Big win for Democrats
Nov 04, 2026
Euro area - Inflation rate breaks the 4% mark
Nov 04, 2026
China - October PMIs split widened
Nov 02, 2026
China - October PMIs split widened
Nov 02, 2026
Germany - Gasoline rebate pushes inflation rate down
Oct 30, 2026
Eurozone GDP - solid growth with some flaws
Oct 30, 2026
German GDP increased in Q3 despite headwinds
Oct 30, 2026
German GDP increased in Q3 despite headwinds
Oct 30, 2026
AI and the US economy: Q&A
Oct 30, 2026
AI and the US economy: Q&A
Oct 30, 2026
30 October 2026: US midterms - a reckoning for Trump
Oct 30, 2026
Germany - Gasoline rebate pushes inflation rate down
Oct 30, 2026
ECB - Lagarde's dual message
Oct 29, 2026
US economy with 3.4% growth in Q3
Oct 29, 2026
ECB - Lagarde's dual message
Oct 29, 2026
The Fed is only taking a break
Oct 28, 2026
Ifo - resilient business sentiment
Oct 26, 2026
Spain - How long will the economic miracle last?
Oct 26, 2026
Ifo - resilient business sentiment
Oct 26, 2026
23 October 2026: Fed and ECB in lockstep
Oct 23, 2026
Uncertainty weighs on euro area PMIs
Oct 23, 2026
Uncertainty weighs on euro area PMIs
Oct 23, 2026
China - Q3 rebound put growth target within reach
Oct 19, 2026
Learning from France's crisis
Oct 19, 2026
China - Q3 rebound put growth target within reach
Oct 19, 2026
US inflation surprisingly hot again
Oct 14, 2026
US inflation surprisingly hot again
Oct 14, 2026
US - Deficits don't matter, until they do
Oct 09, 2026
Germany - Early Bird remains in positive territory
Oct 09, 2026
US - Deficits don't matter, until they do
Oct 09, 2026
Germany Recovery Monitor - Update
Oct 08, 2026
Germany - Big ticket orders plummet
Oct 06, 2026
When will the ECB support France?
Oct 05, 2026
When will the ECB support France?
Oct 05, 2026
Germany - will labor become scarce again?
Oct 01, 2026
Germany - will labor become scarce again?
Oct 01, 2026
China - Q3 ends on a brighter note
Sep 30, 2026
Germany - Inflation Rate Jumps Above 3%
Sep 30, 2026
25 September 2026: Shuffling chairs at the ECB
Sep 25, 2026
Ifo shrugs off high oil prices
Sep 24, 2026
Ifo shrugs off high oil prices
Sep 24, 2026
Who needs the PMIs?
Sep 23, 2026
Why private property?
Sep 21, 2026
18 September 2026: How far will yields go?
Sep 18, 2026
Fed raises rates
Sep 16, 2026
Fed raises rates
Sep 16, 2026
China - August data shows persistent split
Sep 15, 2026
US inflation too high for Fed
Sep 11, 2026
US inflation too high for Fed
Sep 11, 2026
ECB meeting - another hike in December
Sep 10, 2026
ECB meeting - another hike in December
Sep 10, 2026
Germany Recovery Monitor - Update
Sep 10, 2026
Germany Recovery Monitor - Update
Sep 09, 2026
Germany - Production is not getting underway
Sep 07, 2026
Germany - where is the recovery coming from?
Sep 07, 2026
Germany - where is the recovery coming from?
Sep 07, 2026
Saxony-Anhalt: The expected landslide
Sep 07, 2026
Germany - Early Bird Remains Positive
Sep 04, 2026
4 September 2026: How far will the ECB raise rates?
Sep 04, 2026
US labor market better than expected
Sep 04, 2026
German orders positive only on first glimpse
Sep 04, 2026
Germany - Early Bird deep in positive territorry
Aug 07, 2026
24 July 2026: Pressure on the oil market is mounting
Jul 24, 2026
17 July 2026: ECB - Hike postponed, not cancelled
Jul 17, 2026
Germany - Weaker Euro Helps Early Bird
Jul 10, 2026
10 July 2026: The AI boom and its risks
Jul 10, 2026
19 June 2026: After the Iran war - all good again?
Jun 19, 2026
Germany - Early Bird remains stable
Jun 05, 2026
29 May 2026: US tariffs - we are taking stock
May 29, 2026
22 May 2026: How long will oil reserves last?
May 22, 2026
08 May 2026: Middle East war - all good now?
May 08, 2026
Germany - Early Bird gives us a glimmer of hope
May 08, 2026
24 April 2026: Rate hike - what is key for the ECB
Apr 24, 2026
17 April 2026: A worse oil shock than in the 1970s?
Apr 17, 2026
2 April 2026: Higher oil price boosts US inflation
Apr 02, 2026
13 March 2026: Will the ECB raise interest rates?
Mar 13, 2026
06 March 2026: Risk of energy price shock
Mar 06, 2026
Germany - Early Bird stable
Mar 06, 2026
27 February 2026: AI - New Economy 2.0?
Feb 27, 2026
20 February 2026: Germany - fiscal boost is coming
Feb 20, 2026
13 February 2026: Germany - will gas become scarce?
Feb 13, 2026
06 February 2026: Where is the gold price headed?
Feb 06, 2026
Germany - Early Bird halts descent
Feb 06, 2026
16 January 2026: Why we raise our US forecast
Jan 16, 2026
Germany - Early Bird in full decline
Jan 09, 2026
09 January 2026: What will be important in 2026
Jan 09, 2026
12 December 2025: An import tsunami from China?
Dec 12, 2025
Germany - Early Bird continues to decline
Dec 05, 2025
5 December 2025: Fed faces crucial test
Dec 05, 2025
14 November 2025: How will the big debt wave end?
Nov 14, 2025
Germany - Early Bird in decline
Nov 07, 2025
31 October 2025: Where Germany depends on China
Oct 31, 2025
31 October 2025: Where Germany depends on China
Oct 31, 2025
Update €-inflation - The core rate does not budge
Oct 21, 2025
China - Q3 GDP slowed on weak domestic demand
Oct 20, 2025
17 October 2025: Rare Earths - China gets tough
Oct 17, 2025
France - Will Lecornu succeed at the second attempt?
Oct 13, 2025
France - Will Lecornu succeed at the second attempt?
Oct 13, 2025
10 October 2025: Will rising interest rates stop the recovery in the German real estate market?
Oct 10, 2025
German exports to the US keep falling
Oct 09, 2025
German recovery monitor - update
Oct 09, 2025
German recovery monitor - update
Oct 09, 2025
Germany - orders deliver cold shower
Oct 07, 2025
Germany - orders deliver cold shower
Oct 07, 2025
France - The next prime minister resigns
Oct 06, 2025
01 October 2025: The ECB's four oracles
Oct 01, 2025
Eurozone - Inflation back above 2%
Oct 01, 2025
US shutdown could be drawn-out affair: Update 1
Oct 01, 2025
Eurozone - Inflation back above 2%
Oct 01, 2025
Germany - Core inflation simply refuses to fall
Sep 30, 2025
US shutdown becomes more likely
Sep 26, 2025
US shutdown becomes more likely
Sep 26, 2025
German Ifo - a cold shower
Sep 24, 2025
German Ifo - a cold shower
Sep 24, 2025
Euro area PMI rises thanks to Germany
Sep 23, 2025
Euro area PMI rises thanks to Germany
Sep 23, 2025
Independent ECB?
Sep 22, 2025
Independent ECB?
Sep 22, 2025
China - August growth slowed sharply
Sep 15, 2025
US labor market not as dynamic as before
Sep 15, 2025
US labor market not as dynamic as before
Sep 15, 2025
12 September 2025: Fed's independence under attack
Sep 12, 2025
German recovery monitor
Sep 11, 2025
ECB Meeting - No further cuts
Sep 11, 2025
ECB Meeting - No further cuts
Sep 11, 2025
France's government collapses - What is next?
Sep 09, 2025
France's government collapses - What is next?
Sep 09, 2025
Will the German debt brake be further loosened?
Sep 08, 2025
Germany - Has industrial production bottomed out?
Sep 08, 2025
Will the German debt brake be further loosened?
Sep 08, 2025
Germany - Demand still not picking up
Sep 05, 2025
Germany - Early Bird continues to give hope
Sep 05, 2025
5 September 2025: France at a crossroads
Sep 05, 2025
Weak US labor market suggests big rate cut
Sep 05, 2025
Germany - Demand still not picking up
Sep 05, 2025
Euro area inflation remains just above ECB target
Sep 02, 2025
Euro area inflation remains just above ECB target
Sep 02, 2025
China - August PMIs suggest growth has lost steam
Sep 01, 2025
Return of the sovereign debt crisis?
Aug 29, 2025
Return of the sovereign debt crisis?
Aug 29, 2025
Germany - stubborn core inflation
Aug 29, 2025
Ifo continues to creep upward
Aug 25, 2025
Ifo continues to creep upward
Aug 25, 2025
ECB might raise inflation projection slightly
Aug 22, 2025
Germany - Q2 weaker than expected
Aug 22, 2025
Powell opens door to Fed rate cut
Aug 22, 2025
Germany - Q2 weaker than expected
Aug 22, 2025
Euro area PMIs show ray of hope
Aug 21, 2025
€ inflation details - Will the core rate drop soon?
Aug 20, 2025
€ inflation details - Will the core rate drop soon?
Aug 20, 2025
China - Economy slows sharply
Aug 15, 2025
15 August 2025: The decline of "Made in Germany"
Aug 15, 2025
China - Economy slows sharply
Aug 15, 2025
Germany - Early bird in slight decline
Aug 13, 2025
Germany - Early bird in slight decline
Aug 13, 2025
US core inflation is rising only slowly
Aug 12, 2025
US core inflation is rising only slowly
Aug 12, 2025
08 August 2025: Will Trump derail the US economy?
Aug 08, 2025
Bank of England cuts rates in close decision
Aug 07, 2025
Germany - Another setback for factory orders
Aug 06, 2025
Germany - Another setback for factory orders
Aug 06, 2025
Milei remains successful
Aug 04, 2025
Milei remains successful
Aug 04, 2025
Euro area inflation plateaus at ECB target
Aug 01, 2025
US labor market close to stall speed
Aug 01, 2025
China - A slow start to the second half
Jul 31, 2025
German inflation holds its ground
Jul 31, 2025
German inflation holds its ground
Jul 31, 2025
German Q2 GDP not so bad
Jul 30, 2025
China - Household sentiment turned gloomier
Jul 30, 2025
German Q2 GDP not so bad
Jul 30, 2025
US economy registers 3.0% growth in Q2
Jul 30, 2025
Economic Briefing: Trade agreement between the EU and the US - less bad is not necessarily good
Jul 28, 2025
Update inflation model - Trend versus indicators
Jul 25, 2025
Ifo indicator inches upwards
Jul 25, 2025
25 July 2025: Is China's industrial policy working?
Jul 25, 2025
The Euro area PMIs defy Trump
Jul 24, 2025
ECB Meeting - we no longer forecast a rate cut
Jul 24, 2025
The Euro area PMIs defy Trump
Jul 24, 2025
ECB Meeting - we no longer forecast a rate cut
Jul 24, 2025
France - Bayrou's new budget at a crossroads
Jul 16, 2025
France - Bayrou's new budget at a crossroads
Jul 16, 2025
China - Robust Q2 GDP disguised domestic weakness
Jul 15, 2025
Trump's 30% tariff threat against the EU
Jul 14, 2025
Trump's 30% tariff threat against the EU
Jul 11, 2025
11 July 2025: A triple whammy for public finances
Jul 11, 2025
Trump's tariff letters - From Washington with Love
Jul 08, 2025
Germany - Production data better than orders
Jul 07, 2025
Germany - Production data better than orders
Jul 07, 2025
04 July 2025: Next round of tariffs
Jul 04, 2025
Germany - Setback for order intake
Jul 04, 2025
Germany - Setback for order intake
Jul 04, 2025
Germany - Strong euro weighs on Early Bird
Jul 04, 2025
US labor market shows some cracks
Jul 03, 2025
US Senate approves "Big Beautiful Bill"
Jul 02, 2025
Eurozone inflation rises with the oil price
Jul 01, 2025
Eurozone inflation rises with the oil price
Jul 01, 2025
Germany - Core inflation falls slowly
Jun 30, 2025
Germany - Core inflation falls slowly
Jun 30, 2025
Germany - Significant increase in minimum wage
Jun 27, 2025
Germany - Significant increase in minimum wage
Jun 27, 2025
27 June 2025: When will tariffs boost US inflation?
Jun 27, 2025
ECB Strategy Review: More tolerance for inflation?
Jun 26, 2025
China - Why do we think growth will slow in H2?
Jun 26, 2025
ECB Strategy Review: More tolerance for inflation?
Jun 26, 2025
Ifo - fiscal package boosts growth outlook
Jun 24, 2025
Germany - New debt gives the economy a boost
Jun 24, 2025
Ifo - fiscal package boosts growth outlook
Jun 24, 2025
Germany - New debt gives the economy a boost
Jun 24, 2025
Euro area PMIs - Germany outperforms
Jun 23, 2025
Euro area PMIs - Germany outperforms
Jun 23, 2025
Strategy Revision - The ECB remains dovish
Jun 20, 2025
Fed holds rate steady
Jun 18, 2025
Germany - How to cut red tape
Jun 16, 2025
China - May retail sales surprise
Jun 16, 2025
Germany - strong fiscal boost in 2026
Jun 12, 2025
US inflation weaker than expected - again
Jun 11, 2025
Germany - Early Bird rising again
Jun 06, 2025
ECB Meeting - Really the final rate cut?
Jun 05, 2025
Germany - industry turned around despite April drop
Jun 05, 2025
Germany - Underlying inflation remains stubborn
May 30, 2025
30 May 2025: Is the German economy on the mend?
May 30, 2025
Germany - Underlying inflation remains stubborn
May 30, 2025
ECB - All quiet on the inflation front?
May 28, 2025
ECB - All quiet on the inflation front?
May 28, 2025
USA - safety warning for the safe haven?
May 27, 2025
Germany - Q1 growth stronger than expected
May 23, 2025
23 May 2025: How Trump's tariffs will hit China
May 23, 2025
Ifo - Do higher tariffs really not matter?
May 22, 2025
US inflation somewhat below expectations, again
May 13, 2025
China - Trade truce provides temporary relief
May 13, 2025
US inflation somewhat below expectations, again
May 13, 2025
US and China defuse their trade conflict, for now
May 12, 2025
US and China defuse their trade conflict, for now
May 12, 2025
Germany - Trump weighs on Early Bird
May 09, 2025
Germany - Significant increase in production
May 08, 2025
Germany - Significant increase in production
May 08, 2025
New orders a ray of hope for German manufacturing
May 07, 2025
New orders a ray of hope for German manufacturing
May 07, 2025
Fed in wait-and-see mode
May 07, 2025
Merz fails in first German parliamentary vote
May 06, 2025
2 May 2025: Can Trump force the Fed to cut rates?
May 02, 2025
Euro area inflation - Setback in the downward trend
May 02, 2025
German Q1 GDP - just a flash in the pan?
Apr 30, 2025
German inflation only a bit lower
Apr 30, 2025
German Q1 GDP - just a flash in the pan?
Apr 30, 2025
US economy shrank slightly in Q1
Apr 30, 2025
Euro area growth is more appearance than reality
Apr 30, 2025
Making ECB monetary policy fit for bad times
Apr 29, 2025
25 April 2025: Will the Trump dollar weaken further?
Apr 25, 2025
Germany - Ifo defies Trump
Apr 24, 2025
Germany - Ifo defies Trump
Apr 24, 2025
Update Euro inflation model - Not so fast
Apr 23, 2025
Trump attacks Fed chair Powell
Apr 22, 2025
ECB drops neutral rate
Apr 17, 2025
ECB drops neutral rate
Apr 17, 2025
China - Strong growth before tariffs kick in
Apr 16, 2025
Trump tariffs: back and forth
Apr 11, 2025
Germany - setback for the Early Bird
Apr 11, 2025
Hawkometer - The ECB's tame hawks
Apr 11, 2025
US inflation pressure falls
Apr 10, 2025
Trump tariffs: back and forth
Apr 10, 2025
China - Retaliation against 104%
Apr 09, 2025
German industrial production disappoints
Apr 07, 2025
US payrolls: the pre-trade war situation
Apr 04, 2025
US payrolls: the pre-trade war situation
Apr 04, 2025
Germany - Orders remain weak
Apr 04, 2025
Germany - Orders remain weak
Apr 04, 2025
Trump's attack on world trade
Apr 03, 2025
Trump's attack on world trade
Apr 03, 2025
Trump's attack on world trade
Apr 03, 2025
China - US is imposing 54% tariffs
Apr 03, 2025
Factsheet US government debt
Apr 02, 2025
Factsheet US government debt
Apr 02, 2025
Euro area - The core rate continues to drop
Apr 01, 2025
Euro area - The core rate continues to drop
Apr 01, 2025
Germany - Services inflation slowing down
Mar 31, 2025
Germany - Services inflation slowing down
Mar 31, 2025
28 March 2025: A Trump recession?
Mar 28, 2025
Trump announces 25% auto tariffs
Mar 27, 2025
Trump announces 25% auto tariffs
Mar 27, 2025
Ifo rises not only due to the fiscal package
Mar 25, 2025
Ifo rises not only due to the fiscal package
Mar 25, 2025
Euro area PMIs - Manufacturing slowly recovers
Mar 24, 2025
Euro area PMIs - Manufacturing slowly recovers
Mar 24, 2025
Update inflation model - The overlooked risks
Mar 21, 2025
Fed keeps rates unchanged, waits for clarity
Mar 20, 2025
Fed keeps rates unchanged, waits for clarity
Mar 20, 2025
€-Inflation details - No free pass for the ECB
Mar 19, 2025
€-Inflation details - No free pass for the ECB
Mar 19, 2025
China - Is the 5% growth target achievable?
Mar 17, 2025
China - Is the 5% growth target achievable?
Mar 17, 2025
Germany - Agreement on massive fiscal package
Mar 14, 2025
Germany - Agreement on massive fiscal package
Mar 14, 2025
US inflation slows in February
Mar 12, 2025
US inflation slows in February
Mar 12, 2025
Another US shutdown is looming
Mar 11, 2025
Another US shutdown is looming
Mar 11, 2025
German debt illusions
Mar 10, 2025
German debt illusions
Mar 10, 2025
Germany - production slump over?
Mar 10, 2025
Germany - Early Bird is flying high
Mar 07, 2025
US labor market is - still - stable
Mar 07, 2025
US labor market is - still - stable
Mar 07, 2025
China - Update on trade tensions with the US
Mar 07, 2025
ECB switches off the autopilot
Mar 06, 2025
Trump postpones auto tariffs
Mar 06, 2025
ECB switches off the autopilot
Mar 06, 2025
China - More spending to meet the 5% target
Mar 05, 2025
Germany - Whatever it takes 2.0
Mar 05, 2025
Germany - Whatever it takes 2.0
Mar 05, 2025
Trump ramps up tariffs
Mar 04, 2025
Euro area - Core inflation begins its descent
Mar 03, 2025
Euro area - Core inflation begins its descent
Mar 03, 2025
China - Weaker services PMI and looming US tariffs
Mar 03, 2025
ECB - The overdue strategy update
Feb 28, 2025
Germany - Does service inflation ease?
Feb 28, 2025
Trump's tariffs - When? What? How much?
Feb 28, 2025
US economy - is the honeymoon over?
Feb 26, 2025
US economy - is the honeymoon over?
Feb 26, 2025
New German government - where to find the money?
Feb 24, 2025
New German government - where to find the money?
Feb 24, 2025
Germany - Ifo lags behind
Feb 24, 2025
Euro Area PMIs - Recovery paused
Feb 21, 2025
Euro Area PMIs - Recovery paused
Feb 21, 2025
How Europe will pay for its defense
Feb 19, 2025
How Europe will pay for its defense
Feb 19, 2025
Reconstruction of Ukraine
Feb 18, 2025
Reconstruction of Ukraine
Feb 18, 2025
Trump's latest tariff idea
Feb 14, 2025
Who will be hit by Trump's reciprocal tariffs?
Feb 12, 2025
US inflation much too high
Feb 12, 2025
US inflation much too high
Feb 12, 2025
Next round in the US tariff carousel
Feb 11, 2025
A primer for the German election
Feb 10, 2025
A primer for the German election
Feb 10, 2025
7 February 2025: Protectionism - it's not just Trump
Feb 07, 2025
Germany - Early Bird flying even higher
Feb 07, 2025
Germany - Production in the winter slump
Feb 07, 2025
Germany - Production in the winter slump
Feb 07, 2025
Neutral interest rate - much ado about nothing
Feb 07, 2025
US labor market remains in good shape
Feb 07, 2025
ECB: Deceptive wage hopes
Feb 06, 2025
Bank of England cuts Base Rate
Feb 06, 2025
Glimmer of hope for German manufacturing
Feb 06, 2025
Update tariffs - US, China, Mexico, Canada
Feb 05, 2025
France - An economy at a dead end
Feb 05, 2025
Update tariffs - US, China, Mexico, Canada
Feb 04, 2025
Trump's tariff hammer
Feb 03, 2025
Euro area - Inflation rises at the start of the year
Feb 03, 2025
31 January 2025: Trump's shock and awe strategy
Jan 31, 2025
German inflation falls surprisingly
Jan 31, 2025
German inflation falls surprisingly
Jan 31, 2025
German GDP in Q4 weaker than expected
Jan 30, 2025
US economy is chugging along nicely
Jan 30, 2025
ECB - Lagarde not impressed by Powell
Jan 30, 2025
Euro area - The economy stagnated surprisingly in Q4
Jan 30, 2025
German GDP in Q4 weaker than expected
Jan 30, 2025
ECB - Lagarde not impressed by Powell
Jan 30, 2025
Fed pauses rate cuts
Jan 29, 2025
Ifo - Positive start into the year
Jan 27, 2025
Factsheet US foreign trade
Jan 27, 2025
Euro area - PMIs spread hope for 2025
Jan 24, 2025
Euro area - PMIs spread hope for 2025
Jan 24, 2025
24 January 2025: The ECB's wage mirage
Jan 24, 2025
Trump II lifts off
Jan 21, 2025
Update inflation model - energy prices on the rise
Jan 21, 2025
Trump II lifts off
Jan 21, 2025
How to finance higher defense spending?
Jan 20, 2025
How to finance higher defense spending?
Jan 20, 2025
17 January 2025: Now comes the Donald!
Jan 17, 2025
Neutral interest rate: ECB models and dot plot
Jan 16, 2025
US core inflation turns down again
Jan 15, 2025
US core inflation turns down again
Jan 15, 2025
German Q4 GDP - disappointed hopes
Jan 15, 2025
France - Bayrou plays for time
Jan 14, 2025
France - Bayrou plays for time
Jan 14, 2025
German Q4 GDP - disappointed hopes
Jan 14, 2025
Germany - Early Bird keeps on rising
Jan 10, 2025
10 January 2025: What to expect in 2025
Jan 10, 2025
US labor market trumped expectations
Jan 10, 2025
US labor market trumped expectations
Jan 10, 2025
Germany - Factory orders disappoint
Jan 08, 2025
Germany - Factory orders disappoint
Jan 08, 2025
Euro area - Inflation remains stubborn
Jan 07, 2025
US economic policy calendar for 2025
Jan 07, 2025
December German inflation surprisingly higher
Jan 06, 2025
December German inflation surprisingly higher
Jan 06, 2025
3 January 2025: New year, new data!
Jan 03, 2025
Another US shutdown is looming
Dec 20, 2024
Another US shutdown is looming
Dec 20, 2024
Fed delivers a hawkish rate cut
Dec 18, 2024
Fed delivers a hawkish rate cut
Dec 18, 2024
Election update Germany - The plans of CDU and CSU
Dec 17, 2024
Election update Germany - The plans of CDU and CSU
Dec 17, 2024
Ifo - a cold shower
Dec 17, 2024
13 December 2024: Risks to our 2025 outlook
Dec 13, 2024
ECB much more confident
Dec 13, 2024
ECB much more confident
Dec 13, 2024
US inflation decline stalls
Dec 12, 2024
US inflation decline stalls
Dec 12, 2024
Germany - Orders look stronger than they are
Dec 06, 2024
Opportunities of the Mercosur agreement
Dec 06, 2024
Germany - Production still on a downward trend
Dec 06, 2024
Opportunities of the Mercosur agreement
Dec 06, 2024
US labor market remains robust
Dec 06, 2024
US labor market remains robust
Dec 06, 2024
Germany - Early Bird keeps on rising
Dec 06, 2024
France - PM Barnier about to fall?
Dec 02, 2024
Can the US budget be cut by trillions?
Dec 02, 2024
Euro area inflation rises slightly
Nov 29, 2024
29 November 2024: Is Trump making the dollar strong?
Nov 29, 2024
ECB strategy review - don't waste the chance
Nov 28, 2024
ECB strategy review - don't waste the chance
Nov 28, 2024
Germany - Ifo does not give hope
Nov 25, 2024
How weak are German exports?
Nov 22, 2024
How weak are German exports?
Nov 22, 2024
What happens to the debt brake?
Nov 21, 2024
What happens to the debt brake?
Nov 21, 2024
US inflation - progress stalls
Nov 13, 2024
US inflation - progress stalls
Nov 13, 2024
Germany - ECB gives Early Bird a boost
Nov 08, 2024
8 November 2024: Mr. Trump's impact on our forecasts
Nov 08, 2024
German ruling coalition breaks up - what next?
Nov 07, 2024
Germany - Production still on a downward trend
Nov 07, 2024
Fed delivers the expected 25 bp cut
Nov 07, 2024
Fed delivers the expected 25 bp cut
Nov 07, 2024
Trump - winning bigly!
Nov 06, 2024
Germany - orders stable at a low level
Nov 06, 2024
China - Trump tariffs
Nov 06, 2024
What Trump's victory means for Germany
Nov 06, 2024
What Trump's victory means for Germany
Nov 06, 2024
US labor market hit by hurricanes
Nov 01, 2024
US labor market hit by hurricanes
Nov 01, 2024
Germany - positive signals from private consumption
Oct 31, 2024
Germany - positive signals from private consumption
Oct 31, 2024
Euro inflation is rising again
Oct 31, 2024
Why the euro area Q3 GDP is strong
Oct 30, 2024
Germany: Underlying inflation stubbornly high
Oct 30, 2024
Germany: Underlying inflation stubbornly high
Oct 30, 2024
US economy clocks in another solid quarter
Oct 30, 2024
Q3 German GDP - an outlier
Oct 30, 2024
Why the euro area Q3 GDP is strong
Oct 30, 2024
25 October 2024: Weak growth, more ECB rate cuts
Oct 25, 2024
Ifo - good news at last
Oct 25, 2024
Ifo - good news at last
Oct 25, 2024
Euro-PMIs: Stagnation at precarious level
Oct 24, 2024
Euro-PMIs: Stagnation at precarious level
Oct 24, 2024
China - Mixed growth data
Oct 18, 2024
ECB - a risky rate cut
Oct 17, 2024
ECB - a risky rate cut
Oct 17, 2024
ECB - four arguments against a rate cut on Thursday
Oct 14, 2024
Harmless De-Globalization?
Oct 14, 2024
US inflation above expectations
Oct 10, 2024
US inflation above expectations
Oct 10, 2024
France: Lasting turnaround in fiscal policy?
Oct 09, 2024
France: Lasting turnaround in fiscal policy?
Oct 09, 2024
Germany - only temporary production increase
Oct 08, 2024
Germany - only temporary production increase
Oct 08, 2024
Germany - new orders fall sharply
Oct 07, 2024
Germany - new orders fall sharply
Oct 07, 2024
Germany - Early Bird keeps rising
Oct 04, 2024
US jobs growth accelerates again
Oct 04, 2024
Euro area - Inflation rollercoaster briefly below 2%
Oct 01, 2024
Euro area - Inflation rollercoaster briefly below 2%
Oct 01, 2024
Forecast change: ECB with intermediate spurt
Sep 30, 2024
Forecast change: ECB with intermediate spurt
Sep 30, 2024
27 September 2024: What is behind de-globalization?
Sep 27, 2024
Ifo - a cold shower
Sep 24, 2024
China - PBoC's big stimulus
Sep 24, 2024
Ifo - a cold shower
Sep 24, 2024
What is behind the Fed's big move?
Sep 23, 2024
Euro Area PMIs resume downward trend
Sep 23, 2024
What is behind the Fed's big move?
Sep 23, 2024
The Fed initiates rate cutting with a 50 bp step
Sep 18, 2024
The Fed initiates rate cutting with a 50 bp step
Sep 18, 2024
13 September 2024: The Fed - cautious or bold?
Sep 13, 2024
ECB - no October rate cut
Sep 12, 2024
ECB - no October rate cut
Sep 12, 2024
US inflation data argue for small rate cut
Sep 11, 2024
US inflation data argue for small rate cut
Sep 11, 2024
US labor market barely recovers in August
Sep 06, 2024
Germany - Weak start to Q3
Sep 06, 2024
Germany - Early Bird back in positive territory
Sep 06, 2024
6 September 2024: ECB - the double rate cut
Sep 06, 2024
Germany - Weak start to Q3
Sep 06, 2024
US labor market barely recovers in August
Sep 06, 2024
Germany - Orders bottoming out?
Sep 05, 2024
Euro area - inflation flirts with the 2%-mark
Aug 30, 2024
Euro area - inflation flirts with the 2%-mark
Aug 30, 2024
Germany - Ifo keeps falling
Aug 26, 2024
Germany - Ifo keeps falling
Aug 26, 2024
23 August 2024: Is Kamala Harris really in the lead?
Aug 23, 2024
Time has come for rate cuts, Fed Chair Powell says
Aug 23, 2024
Time has come for rate cuts, Fed Chair Powell says
Aug 23, 2024
Euro-PMIs are gradually turning the corner
Aug 22, 2024
Euro-PMIs are gradually turning the corner
Aug 22, 2024
US - hundreds of thousands jobs to be revised away
Aug 19, 2024
US - hundreds of thousands jobs to be revised away
Aug 19, 2024
US inflation cools further
Aug 14, 2024
US inflation cools further
Aug 14, 2024
US labor market check-up
Aug 12, 2024
Is there really demand for a digital euro?
Aug 12, 2024
US labor market check-up
Aug 12, 2024
Is there really demand for a digital euro?
Aug 12, 2024
Germany - Early Bird is losing momentum
Aug 09, 2024
Germany - Production disappoints despite increase
Aug 07, 2024
Germany - Production disappoints despite increase
Aug 07, 2024
Germany - Production disappoints despite increase
Aug 06, 2024
June German orders - only bottoming out
Aug 06, 2024
US labor market softens markedly
Aug 02, 2024
US labor market softens markedly
Aug 02, 2024
Fed clears path for rate cut in September
Aug 01, 2024
Bank of England delivers first rate cut
Aug 01, 2024
Euro area - the inflation wave
Aug 01, 2024
Bank of England delivers first rate cut
Aug 01, 2024
Fed clears path for rate cut in September
Aug 01, 2024
Germany - Inflation remains stubbornly high
Jul 30, 2024
Germany - Inflation remains stubbornly high
Jul 30, 2024
Euro area - moderate but uneven growth
Jul 30, 2024
US economy is expanding faster than expected
Jul 25, 2024
Ifo - cold shower
Jul 25, 2024
Ifo - cold shower
Jul 25, 2024
Trump or Harris - not much room for maneuver
Jul 25, 2024
Euro area PMIs diminish hopes for swift recovery
Jul 24, 2024
Euro area PMIs diminish hopes for swift recovery
Jul 24, 2024
19 July 2024: Trump 2.0 - the program
Jul 19, 2024
ECB - is it really data-dependent?
Jul 18, 2024
ECB - is it really data-dependent?
Jul 18, 2024
US inflation cooled more than expected
Jul 11, 2024
US inflation cooled more than expected
Jul 11, 2024
Germany's debt brake - a lucky break
Jul 08, 2024
Germany's debt brake - a lucky break
Jul 08, 2024
US labor market is cooling further
Jul 05, 2024
US labor market is cooling further
Jul 05, 2024
Germany - Early Bird continues to give hope
Jul 05, 2024
Germany - weak production in May
Jul 05, 2024
Germany - weak production in May
Jul 05, 2024
UK elections - landslide win for Labour
Jul 05, 2024
German government agrees on 2025 budget
Jul 05, 2024
Germany - no turnaround in manufacturing yet
Jul 04, 2024
Germany - no turnaround in manufacturing yet
Jul 04, 2024
Data the ECB keeps an eye on
Jul 02, 2024
Drop in inflation rate not a liberating blow
Jul 02, 2024
Drop in inflation rate not a liberating blow
Jul 02, 2024
Data the ECB keeps an eye on
Jul 02, 2024
French elections: Le Pen's RN wins first round
Jul 01, 2024
ECB - New Strategy with Pitfalls
Jul 01, 2024
Germany - Inflation near 2%, but ...
Jul 01, 2024
Biden loses TV debate against Trump
Jun 28, 2024
Biden loses TV debate against Trump
Jun 28, 2024
Biden loses TV debate against Trump
Jun 28, 2024
Maritime congestion drives inflation
Jun 27, 2024
Maritime congestion drives inflation
Jun 27, 2024
Ifo - a warning signal
Jun 24, 2024
Ifo - a warning signal
Jun 24, 2024
21 June 2024: What Le Pen means for EMU
Jun 21, 2024
21 June 2024: Overcapacity in China
Jun 21, 2024
Euro Purchasing Managers' Index - sizeable setback
Jun 21, 2024
Euro Purchasing Managers' Index - sizeable setback
Jun 21, 2024
Fed now sees only one rate cut in 2024
Jun 12, 2024
US inflationary pressure falls in May
Jun 12, 2024
USA - Fed now sees only one rate cut in 2024
Jun 12, 2024
EU threatens tariffs on Chinese electric cars
Jun 12, 2024
US inflationary pressure falls in May
Jun 12, 2024
US labor market surprises again
Jun 07, 2024
Germany - Early Bird crawls to the zero line
Jun 07, 2024
Germany - Production stable at a low level
Jun 07, 2024
Germany - Production stable at a low level
Jun 07, 2024
US labor market surprises again
Jun 07, 2024
Germany - Turnaround in orders?
Jun 06, 2024
ECB - what the premature rate cut means
Jun 06, 2024
EU election: Major changes unlikely
Jun 03, 2024
EU election: Major changes unlikely
Jun 03, 2024
A warning shot for the ECB
May 31, 2024
A warning shot for the ECB
May 31, 2024
31 May 2024: How bold is the ECB?
May 31, 2024
Germany: Disinflation at an end?
May 29, 2024
Germany: Disinflation at an end?
May 29, 2024
What the Ifo disappointment means
May 27, 2024
Germany - What the Ifo disappointment means
May 27, 2024
Germany - What the Ifo disappointment means
May 27, 2024
24 May 2024: Will Trump put the Fed on a leash?
May 24, 2024
ECB: Damn wage inflation
May 23, 2024
Euro area PMIs - Recovery in manufacturing
May 23, 2024
ECB: Damn wage inflation
May 23, 2024
Euro area PMIs - Recovery in manufacturing
May 23, 2024
Lessons from the US
May 21, 2024
Lessons from the US
May 21, 2024
17 May 2024: Why inflation is likely to remain high
May 17, 2024
ECB - Limited room for rate cuts
May 14, 2024
ECB - Limited room for rate cuts
May 14, 2024
10 May 2024: Why is the US outgrowing Europe?
May 10, 2024
Germany: Early Bird continues to climb
May 10, 2024
Germany - Slight setback in production
May 08, 2024
Germany - Slight setback in production
May 08, 2024
Germany - orders remain weak
May 07, 2024
Germany - orders remain weak
May 07, 2024
US employment report disappoints
May 03, 2024
3 May 2024: Germany - is this the turning point?
May 03, 2024
US employment report disappoints
May 03, 2024
Fed more cautious as regards rate cuts
May 01, 2024
Fed more cautious as regards rate cuts
May 01, 2024
Fed more cautious as regards rate cuts
May 01, 2024
Euro area - inflation stagnates, economy grows
Apr 30, 2024
German Q1 GDP - back to growth at long last
Apr 30, 2024
German Q1 GDP - back to growth at long last
Apr 30, 2024
Germany: Inflation rate stops falling
Apr 29, 2024
Germany: Inflation rate stops falling
Apr 29, 2024
26 April 2024: Rays of hope for German house prices
Apr 26, 2024
US growth slower, inflation too high
Apr 25, 2024
US growth slower, inflation too high
Apr 25, 2024
German Ifo with clear upward signal
Apr 24, 2024
German Ifo with clear upward signal
Apr 24, 2024
Euro area services PMI signals economic recovery
Apr 23, 2024
Euro area services PMI signals economic recovery
Apr 23, 2024
Euro area services PMI signals economic recovery
Apr 23, 2024
ECB all but announced a rate cut in June
Apr 16, 2024
China - GDP surprise, but strength may be fading
Apr 16, 2024
China - GDP surprise, but strength may be fading
Apr 16, 2024
12 April 2024: German auto industry under pressure
Apr 12, 2024
ECB all but announced a rate cut in June
Apr 11, 2024
Germany - Debt brake as a bone of contention
Apr 11, 2024
US budget - interest outlays are exploding
Apr 11, 2024
Germany - Debt brake as a bone of contention
Apr 11, 2024
US inflation too high for a June rate cut
Apr 10, 2024
US inflation too high for a June rate cut
Apr 10, 2024
Sticky euro inflation - an update
Apr 09, 2024
Sticky euro inflation - an update
Apr 09, 2024
Germany - Second production increase in a row
Apr 08, 2024
US payrolls again stronger than expected
Apr 05, 2024
Germany - No turnaround in orders yet
Apr 05, 2024
Germany - No turnaround in orders yet
Apr 05, 2024
5 April 2024: Why German exports to China fall
Apr 05, 2024
US payrolls again stronger than expected
Apr 05, 2024
Germany - Revised Early Bird gives hope
Apr 05, 2024
Euro area inflation rate is falling - for now
Apr 04, 2024
Euro area inflation rate is falling - for now
Apr 04, 2024
Germany - Rising wage costs drive service prices
Apr 03, 2024
US Treasuries: there are enough buyers
Apr 03, 2024
US Treasuries: there are enough buyers
Apr 03, 2024
China - PMIs suggest further signs of stabilization
Apr 02, 2024
Trump's trade agenda - carrot and stick
Apr 02, 2024
Trump's trade agenda - carrot and stick
Apr 02, 2024
Germany - Rising wage costs drive service prices
Apr 02, 2024
The Fed booked $114bn of losses last year
Mar 27, 2024
The Fed booked $114bn of losses last year
Mar 27, 2024
22 March 2024: AI boom not an internet bubble 2.0
Mar 22, 2024
Ifo - a strong figure at last
Mar 22, 2024
Ifo - a strong figure at last
Mar 22, 2024
Euro area services PMI gives hope
Mar 21, 2024
Euro area services PMI gives hope
Mar 21, 2024
Euro area services PMI gives hope
Mar 21, 2024
Fed still expects to cut rates by 75 bps in 2024
Mar 20, 2024
Bank of Japan raises key rate
Mar 19, 2024
Bank of Japan raises key rate
Mar 19, 2024
15 March 2024: Economic miracle Italy?
Mar 15, 2024
15 March 2024: Economic miracle Italy?
Mar 15, 2024
China - Positive fiscal impulse in 2024
Mar 14, 2024
China - Positive fiscal impulse in 2024
Mar 14, 2024
USA - where is the productivity miracle?
Mar 13, 2024
ECB - The flood gates remain open
Mar 13, 2024
ECB - The flood gates remain open
Mar 13, 2024
ECB - The flood gates remain open
Mar 13, 2024
US inflation pressure rises again
Mar 12, 2024
US inflation pressure rises again
Mar 12, 2024
Germany - Early Bird does not get off the ground
Mar 11, 2024
Robust US job growth, but no overheating
Mar 08, 2024
Robust US job growth, but no overheating
Mar 08, 2024
Germany - Orders continue downtrend
Mar 07, 2024
China targets 5% growth, again
Mar 05, 2024
China targets 5% growth, again
Mar 05, 2024
ECB - the hawks have taken flight
Mar 01, 2024
ECB - the hawks have taken flight
Mar 01, 2024
Germany - Core inflation rate stable at a high level
Feb 29, 2024
Ifo - still no recovery
Feb 23, 2024
US recession called off
Feb 23, 2024
23 February 2024: Our new US forecast
Feb 23, 2024
Euro area PMIs: light at the end of the tunnel
Feb 22, 2024
ECB - No all-clear for wages
Feb 20, 2024
Underlying inflation sticky like glue
Feb 15, 2024
Underlying inflation sticky like glue
Feb 15, 2024
US inflation in January stronger than expected
Feb 13, 2024
Why cut corporate taxes?
Feb 12, 2024
Germany - Early Bird rises slightly
Feb 09, 2024
Germany - Industrial production keeps falling
Feb 07, 2024