The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q2 is 2.7%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.6, 3.8]% and the 80% interval at [0.5, 4.8]%. The Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q3 is 2.5%.

• News from this week's data releases increased the estimates for 2026 Q2 and 2026 Q3 by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively.
• For both quarters, the increases were largely driven by positive contributions from nonfarm payroll employment and ISM manufacturing survey data.

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q2 is 2.5%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.4, 3.7]% and the 80% interval at [0.4, 4.7]%.

• News from this week's data releases decreased the estimate for 2026 Q2 by 0.1 percentage point.
• A positive contribution from manufacturers' new orders data was more than offset by a negative contribution from personal consumption data, along with a negative impact from data revisions for the quarter.

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q2 is 2.6%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.6, 3.8]% and the 80% interval at [0.5, 4.8]%.

• News from this week's data releases left the estimate for 2026 Q2 unchanged.
• A negative contribution from the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey was offset by data on building permits and housing starts.

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q2 is 2.6%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.6, 3.8]% and the 80% interval at [0.5, 4.8]%.

• News from this week's data releases left the estimate for 2026 Q2 unchanged.
• Positive contributions from the Empire State Manufacturing Survey and industrial production data were offset by a negative contribution from retail sales data for the quarter.

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q2 is 2.6%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.6, 3.8]% and the 80% interval at [0.4, 4.8]%.

• News from this week's data releases increased the estimate for 2026 Q2 by 0.1 percentage point.
• Positive contributions from nonfarm payroll employment and housing data drove the increase for the quarter.

The final New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q1 was 2.4%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.1, 3.5]% and the 80% interval at [0.1, 4.5]%. The advance estimate of real GDP growth for 2026 Q1, released by the Commerce Department on April 30, was 2.0%.

• The Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q2 is 2.5%. News from this week's data releases decreased the estimate by 0.3 percentage point.
• This decrease was driven largely by negative surprises from GDP and ISM manufacturing survey data as well as parameter revisions.

Q1 2026

Q2 2026

Q1 2026

Q2 2026

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q1 is 2.3%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.0, 3.4]% and the 80% interval at [0.1, 4.5]%. The Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q2 is 2.8%.

• News from this week's data releases increased the estimate for 2026 Q2 by 0.2 percentage points and left the estimate for 2026 Q1 unchanged.
• The increase in the estimate for 2026 Q2 was largely driven by positive contributions from parameter revisions and manufacturing survey data.

Q1 2026

Q2 2026

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q1 is 2.3%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.0, 3.4]% and the 80% interval at [0.1, 4.5]%. The Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q2 is 2.6%.

• News from this week's data releases decreased the estimates for 2026 Q1 and 2026 Q2 by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage point, respectively.
• Negative contributions from personal consumption data and data revisions drove the decrease for 2026 Q1, while negative contributions from headline CPI data and parameter revisions drove the decrease for 2026 Q2.

Q1 2026

Q2 2026

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q1 is 2.4%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.2, 3.5]% and the 80% probability interval at [0.2, 4.6]%. The Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q2 is 2.8%.

• News from this week's data releases increased the estimates for 2026 Q1 and 2026 Q2 by 0.3 percentage point and 0.1 percentage point, respectively.
• The increases for both quarters were largely driven by positive impacts from parameter revisions, as well as data on imports, exports, and nonfarm payroll employment.

Q1 2026

Q2 2026

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q1 is 2.1%, with the 50% probability interval at [0.8, 3.2]% and the 80% interval at [-0.1, 4.2]%. The Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q2 is 2.7%.

• News from this week's data releases left the estimates for 2026 Q1 and 2026 Q2 unchanged.
• A positive surprise from import prices was offset by a negative surprise from construction data for 2026 Q1.