The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026:Q3 is 2.3%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.1, 3.4]% and the 80% interval at [0.0, 4.5]%. The Staff Nowcast for 2026:Q4 is 2.5%.

• News from this week's data releases increased the estimate for 2026:Q3 by 0.1 percentage point and decreased the estimate for 2026:Q4 by 0.1 percentage point.
• For 2026:Q3, a positive surprise from unemployment data offset negative surprises from ADP employment and exports data. For 2026:Q4, negative surprises from ADP employment, JOLTs, and export data offset a positive surprise from unemployment data.

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q3 is 2.2%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.0, 3.4]% and the 80% interval at [0.0, 4.5]%.

• News from this week's data releases decreased the estimate by 0.1 percentage point.
• A positive surprise from manufacturers' shipments data was offset by negative surprises from data on business inventories, housing, and headline PCE.

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026:Q3 is 2.3%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.1, 3.4]% and the 80% interval at [0.0, 4.5]%.

• News from this week's data releases increased the estimate by 0.2 percentage point.
• Positive surprises from data on building permits and the Philadelphia Fed's Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey drove this increase.

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026:Q3 is 2.1%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.0, 3.3]% and the 80% interval at [-0.1, 4.4]%.

• News from this week's data releases decreased the estimate by 0.1 percentage point.
• Positive surprises from CPI data were offset by a negative surprise from retail sales data.

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026:Q3 is 2.2%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.1, 3.4]% and the 80% interval at [0.0, 4.5]%.

• News from this week's data releases decreased the estimate by 0.3 percentage point.
• A positive surprise from unemployment data was more than offset by negative surprises from nonfarm payroll data and from ADP employment data.

The final New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026:Q2 was 2.9%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.8, 4.0]% and the 80% interval at [0.7, 5.0]%. The advance estimate of real GDP growth for 2026:Q2, released by the Commerce Department on July 30, was 1.5%.

• The Staff Nowcast for 2026:Q3 is 2.5%. News from this week's data releases decreased the estimate by 0.1 percentage point.
• Positive surprises from manufacturers' shipments and disposable income were more than offset by a negative surprise from GDP data for 2026:Q3.

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026:Q2 is 2.8%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.8, 4.0]% and the 80% interval at [0.7, 5.0]%. The Staff Nowcast for 2026:Q3 is 2.6%.

• News from this week's data releases left the estimates for 2026:Q2 and 2026:Q3 largely unchanged.
• None of this week's data releases had a significant impact on the Nowcast.

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026:Q2 is 2.8%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.8, 4.0]% and the 80% interval at [0.7, 5.0]%. The Staff Nowcast for 2026:Q3 is 2.6%.

• News from this week's data releases increased the estimates for 2026:Q2 and 2026:Q3 by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage point, respectively.
• For both quarters, positive surprises from housing starts and headline CPI data and from upward revisions to retail sales data drove much of this increase.
   

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026:Q2 is 2.7%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.7, 3.9]% and the 80% interval at [0.6, 4.9]%. The Staff Nowcast for 2026:Q3 is 2.4%.

• News from this week's data releases left the estimates for 2026:Q2 and 2026:Q3 largely unchanged.
• None of this week's data releases had a significant impact on the Nowcast.

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q2 is 2.7%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.7, 3.9]% and the 80% interval at [0.6, 4.9]%. The Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q3 is 2.4%.

• News from this week's data releases left the estimates for 2026 Q2 and 2026 Q3 largely unchanged.
• For both quarters, positive surprises from parameter revisions and unemployment data were offset by negative surprises from nonfarm payroll employment and ADP employment data.

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q2 is 2.7%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.6, 3.9]% and the 80% interval at [0.5, 4.9]%. The Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q3 is 2.5%.

• News from this week's data releases left the estimates for 2026 Q2 and 2026 Q3 largely unchanged.
• For both quarters, negative surprises from housing starts data were offset by positive surprises from retail sales data.