Latest Updates

• New York Fed Staff Nowcast: Week of April 24th 2026-04-24 11:45

  Q1 2026

  

  Q2 2026

  
• New York Fed Staff Nowcast: Week of April 17th 2026-04-17 11:45

  Q1 2026

  

  Q2 2026

  

  The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q1 is 2.3%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.0, 3.4]% and the 80% interval at [0.1, 4.5]%. The Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q2 is 2.8%.

  • News from this week's data releases increased the estimate for 2026 Q2 by 0.2 percentage points and left the estimate for 2026 Q1 unchanged.
  • The increase in the estimate for 2026 Q2 was largely driven by positive contributions from parameter revisions and manufacturing survey data.
• New York Fed Staff Nowcast: Week of April 10th 2026-04-10 11:45

  Q1 2026

  

  Q2 2026

  

  The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q1 is 2.3%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.0, 3.4]% and the 80% interval at [0.1, 4.5]%. The Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q2 is 2.6%.

  • News from this week's data releases decreased the estimates for 2026 Q1 and 2026 Q2 by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage point, respectively.
  • Negative contributions from personal consumption data and data revisions drove the decrease for 2026 Q1, while negative contributions from headline CPI data and parameter revisions drove the decrease for 2026 Q2.
• New York Fed Staff Nowcast: Week of April 3rd 2026-04-03 11:45

  Q1 2026

  

  Q2 2026

  

  The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q1 is 2.4%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.2, 3.5]% and the 80% probability interval at [0.2, 4.6]%. The Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q2 is 2.8%.

  • News from this week's data releases increased the estimates for 2026 Q1 and 2026 Q2 by 0.3 percentage point and 0.1 percentage point, respectively.
  • The increases for both quarters were largely driven by positive impacts from parameter revisions, as well as data on imports, exports, and nonfarm payroll employment.
• New York Fed Staff Nowcast: Week of March 27th 2026-03-27 11:45

  Q1 2026

  

  Q2 2026

  

  The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q1 is 2.1%, with the 50% probability interval at [0.8, 3.2]% and the 80% interval at [-0.1, 4.2]%. The Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q2 is 2.7%.

  • News from this week's data releases left the estimates for 2026 Q1 and 2026 Q2 unchanged.
  • A positive surprise from import prices was offset by a negative surprise from construction data for 2026 Q1.
• New York Fed Staff Nowcast: Week of March 20th 2026-03-20 11:45

  Q1 2026

  

  Q2 2026

  

  The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q1 is 2.1%, with the 50% probability interval at [0.8, 3.2]% and the 80% interval at [-0.1, 4.2]%. The Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q2 is 2.7%.

  • News from this week's data releases left the estimates for 2026 Q1 and 2026 Q2 unchanged.
  • A positive surprise from the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Outlook Survey was offset by a negative surprise from the Empire State Manufacturing Survey for 2026 Q2.
• New York Fed Staff Nowcast: Week of March 13th 2026-03-13 11:45

  

  The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q1 is 2.1%, with the 50% probability interval at [0.8, 3.2]% and the 80% probability interval at [-0.1, 4.2]%.

  • News from this week's data releases decreased the estimate by 0.1 percentage point.
  • This decrease was largely driven by the negative revision to 2025 Q4 GDP data.
• New York Fed Staff Nowcast: Week of March 6th 2026-03-06 11:45

  

  The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q1 is 2.2%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.0, 3.3]% and the 80% probability interval at [0, 4.3]%.

  • News from this week's data releases decreased the estimate for 2026 Q1 by 0.2 percentage point.
  • This decrease was largely driven by negative surprises from retail sales data and nonfarm payroll employment data.
• New York Fed Staff Nowcast: Week of February 27th 2026-02-27 11:45

  

  The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q1 is 2.4%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.1, 3.5]% and the 80% interval at [0.1, 4.5]%.

  • News from this week's data releases left the estimate for 2026 Q1 unchanged.
  • Impacts from individual data releases this week (housing and construction data) were negligible.
• New York Fed Staff Nowcast: Week of February 20th 2026-02-20 11:45

  

  The final New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2025 Q4 was 2.7%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.6, 4.0]% and the 80% interval at [0.5, 5.1]%. The advance estimate of real GDP growth for 2025 Q4, released by the Commerce Department on February 20, was 1.4%.

  • The Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q1 is 2.4%. News from this week's data releases decreased the estimate by 0.2 percentage point.
  • This decrease was largely driven by a negative surprise from GDP data.
• New York Fed Staff Nowcast: Week of February 13th 2026-02-13 11:45

  

  The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2025 Q4 is 2.7%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.6, 4.0]% and the 80% interval at [0.5, 5.1]%. The Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q1 is 2.6%.

  • News from this week's data releases left the estimates for 2025 Q4 and 2026 Q1 unchanged.
  • A positive impact from nonfarm payroll employment data was offset by a negative impact from retail sales data for both quarters.
• New York Fed Staff Nowcast: Week of February 6th 2026-02-06 12:45

  

  The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2025 Q4 is 2.7%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.6, 4.0]% and the 80% interval at [0.5, 5.0]%. The Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q1 is 2.6%.

  • News from this week's data releases left the estimate for 2025 Q4 unchanged while decreasing the estimate for 2026 Q1 by 0.1 percentage point.
  • The decrease for 2026 Q1 was driven by negative surprises from ADP employment data and data revisions.