The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026:Q3 is 2.1%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.0, 3.3]% and the 80% interval at [-0.1, 4.4]%.

• News from this week's data releases decreased the estimate by 0.1 percentage point.
• Positive surprises from CPI data were offset by a negative surprise from retail sales data.