The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026:Q3 is 2.3%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.1, 3.4]% and the 80% interval at [0.0, 4.5]%.

• News from this week's data releases increased the estimate by 0.2 percentage point.
• Positive surprises from data on building permits and the Philadelphia Fed's Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey drove this increase.