The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q3 is 2.2%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.0, 3.4]% and the 80% interval at [0.0, 4.5]%.

• News from this week's data releases decreased the estimate by 0.1 percentage point.
• A positive surprise from manufacturers' shipments data was offset by negative surprises from data on business inventories, housing, and headline PCE.