The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026:Q3 is 2.3%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.1, 3.4]% and the 80% interval at [0.0, 4.5]%. The Staff Nowcast for 2026:Q4 is 2.5%.

• News from this week's data releases increased the estimate for 2026:Q3 by 0.1 percentage point and decreased the estimate for 2026:Q4 by 0.1 percentage point.
• For 2026:Q3, a positive surprise from unemployment data offset negative surprises from ADP employment and exports data. For 2026:Q4, negative surprises from ADP employment, JOLTs, and export data offset a positive surprise from unemployment data.