The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026:Q3 is 2.2%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.1, 3.4]% and the 80% interval at [0.0, 4.5]%.

• News from this week's data releases decreased the estimate by 0.3 percentage point.
• A positive surprise from unemployment data was more than offset by negative surprises from nonfarm payroll data and from ADP employment data.