The final New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026:Q2 was 2.9%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.8, 4.0]% and the 80% interval at [0.7, 5.0]%. The advance estimate of real GDP growth for 2026:Q2, released by the Commerce Department on July 30, was 1.5%.

• The Staff Nowcast for 2026:Q3 is 2.5%. News from this week's data releases decreased the estimate by 0.1 percentage point.
• Positive surprises from manufacturers' shipments and disposable income were more than offset by a negative surprise from GDP data for 2026:Q3.