The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026:Q3 is 2.3%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.2, 3.5]% and the 80% interval at [0.0, 4.6]%. The Staff Nowcast for 2026:Q4 is 2.6%.

• News from this week's data releases increased the estimate for 2026:Q4 by 0.1 percentage point while leaving the estimate for 2026:Q3 largely unchanged.
• The increase in the estimate for 2026:Q4 was mainly driven by a positive surprise from retail sales data.