The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026:Q2 is 2.8%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.8, 4.0]% and the 80% interval at [0.7, 5.0]%. The Staff Nowcast for 2026:Q3 is 2.6%.

• News from this week's data releases increased the estimates for 2026:Q2 and 2026:Q3 by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage point, respectively.
• For both quarters, positive surprises from housing starts and headline CPI data and from upward revisions to retail sales data drove much of this increase.