U.S. households’ one-year-ahead inflation expectations eased to 3.0% (-0.1 ppt MoM) in February 2026, while medium- and longer-term expectations held steady at 3.0%, indicating stable inflation outlooks with slightly softer short-term views.

• Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations declined to 3.0% (-0.1 ppt MoM), while three-year and five-year expectations remained unchanged at 3.0%, suggesting that short-term inflation expectations softened slightly while longer-term expectations remained stable.

• Measures of disagreement and uncertainty around inflation expectations both declined across all horizons, indicating that households’ views about future inflation became more aligned and less uncertain during the month.

• Median home price growth expectations edged up to 3.0% (+0.1 ppt MoM), bringing the measure in line with its trailing 12-month average and suggesting stable expectations for housing price growth.

• Year-ahead commodity price expectations declined for several categories, including food to 5.3% (-0.4 ppt), medical care to 9.7% (-0.1 ppt), and rent to 5.9% (-0.9 ppt), with the rent expectation reaching its lowest level since December 2024.

• In contrast, expectations for gasoline prices increased to 4.1% (+1.3 ppts), while expected college cost inflation edged up to 9.1% (+0.1 ppt), indicating divergence across major household spending categories.

• Labor market expectations softened modestly as median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations fell to 2.5% (-0.2 ppt MoM), slightly below the trailing 12-month average of 2.6%.

• The mean perceived probability of job loss declined to 13.8% (-1.0 ppt MoM), while the probability that the unemployment rate will be higher one year ahead fell to 39.9% (-2.0 ppts), indicating some improvement in perceived labor market stability.

• The probability of voluntarily leaving a job fell sharply to 15.9% (-2.8 ppts), a series low, while the probability of finding a job within three months if displaced declined to 44.0% (-1.6 ppts), highlighting weaker confidence in re-employment prospects.

• Household financial expectations were mixed: expected income growth remained unchanged at 2.9%, spending growth expectations held at 4.9%, and the perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment fell to 11.6% (-2.1 ppts), the lowest since February 2024.

U.S. households’ one-year-ahead inflation expectations eased to 3.1% (-0.3 ppt MoM) in January, alongside steadier medium-term views and modestly firmer labor expectations.

• Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations declined to 3.1% (-0.3 ppt MoM), while three-year and five-year expectations held at 3.0%, indicating softer short-term inflation views with stable longer-term anchors.

• Inflation uncertainty decreased at the one-year and three-year horizons but increased at the five-year horizon, pointing to mixed dispersion across timeframes.

• Median home price growth expectations edged down to 2.9% (-0.1 ppt MoM), the lowest since July 2023, suggesting continued moderation in housing price outlooks.

• Year-ahead commodity price expectations fell for gas to 2.8% (-1.2 ppts), medical care to 9.8% (-0.1 ppt), and rent to 6.8% (-0.9 ppt), were unchanged for food at 5.7%, and rose for college costs to 9.0% (+0.7 ppt), showing divergent category-level expectations.

• Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations increased to 2.7% (+0.2 ppt), driven by households with income under $50,000, while expected household income growth slipped to 2.9% (-0.1 ppt).

• Labor market perceptions improved modestly: the perceived probability of job loss fell to 14.8% (-0.4 ppt), the expected quit rate rose to 18.7% (+1.2 ppts), and the probability of finding a job if displaced increased to 45.6% (+2.5 ppts), though remaining below its 12-month average.

• Household finance signals were mixed, with expected spending growth unchanged at 4.9%, credit availability expectations deteriorating, and the perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment declining to 13.7% (-1.6 ppts) but staying slightly above its 12-month average.

U.S. consumers’ one-year-ahead inflation expectations rose +0.2 ppt to 3.4% in December, while medium- and long-term expectations held at 3.0%, signaling firmer short-term inflation views amid weakening labor sentiment.

• One-year-ahead inflation expectations increased to 3.4% (+0.2 ppt MoM), while three-year and five-year expectations were unchanged at 3.0%; disagreement across respondents widened at the one-year and three-year horizons.

• Inflation uncertainty increased at all horizons, indicating greater dispersion around future price outcomes despite stable medium- and long-term medians.

• Home price growth expectations held at 3.0% for a seventh consecutive month, remaining within a narrow 3.0%–3.3% range since August 2023.

• Year-ahead commodity price expectations declined modestly: gas to 4.0% (-0.1 ppt), food to 5.7% (-0.2 ppt), medical care to 9.9% (-0.2 ppt), college costs to 8.3% (-0.1 ppt), and rent to 7.7% (-0.6 ppt).

• Earnings growth expectations edged down to 2.5% (-0.1 ppt MoM), remaining below the 12-month average of 2.7%, while expected household income growth ticked up to 3.0% (+0.1 ppt).

• Labor market expectations weakened: the mean probability of unemployment being higher in one year fell slightly to 41.8% (-0.3 ppt), but the perceived probability of job loss rose to 15.2% (+1.4 ppts), above its 12-month average.

• Job-finding expectations declined sharply to 43.1% (-4.2 ppts), reaching a new series low and driven primarily by lower-income respondents, older workers, and those with less education.

• Household financial stress indicators worsened, with the probability of missing a minimum debt payment rising to 15.3% (+1.6 ppts), the highest since April 2020, even as perceptions of current and future household financial situations improved.

U.S. consumers’ inflation expectations were unchanged in November, with one-year-ahead expectations steady at 3.2% and medium- and long-term expectations holding at 3.0%, while views of household finances and future financial conditions deteriorated.

• Inflation uncertainty decreased at the five-year horizon and disagreement across respondents narrowed at all horizons, suggesting slightly more convergence in inflation views.

• Home price expectations held at 3.0% for the sixth straight month, while one-year-ahead expectations for food (+0.2 ppt to 5.9%), gas (+0.6 ppt to 4.1%), medical care (+0.7 ppt to 10.1%), college costs (+0.2 ppt to 8.4%) and rent (+1.1 ppts to 8.3%) all increased; medical cost expectations reached their highest reading since January 2014.

• Labor market expectations showed modest improvement, with unemployment expectations edging down to 42.1% (-0.4 ppt) and job-loss probability falling to 13.8%, its lowest reading since December 2024; job-finding expectations rose to 47.3%, though still below the 12-month average.

• Earnings growth expectations were unchanged at 2.6%, while expected household income growth ticked up to 2.9%, matching its 12-month average.

• Expected household spending growth increased to 5.0% (+0.2 ppt), remaining elevated relative to income expectations.

• Perceived credit access worsened, with more respondents reporting tighter conditions compared with a year ago, and expectations for future access unchanged; the probability of missing a minimum debt payment rose to 13.7%.

• Tax expectations increased to 4.1% (+0.9 ppt), the highest since June 2024, and expected government debt growth rose to 9.2%, the highest since July 2024.

• Financial perceptions weakened, with more households reporting they are worse off than a year ago and fewer expecting improvement over the next year.

• Equity sentiment softened slightly, as the perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher in 12 months slipped to 37.9% (-1.0 ppt).

U.S. consumers’ short-term inflation expectations fell -0.2 ppt to 3.2% in October 2025, while medium- and long-term expectations held steady at 3.0%, reflecting stable price outlooks amid rising disagreement among respondents.

• Inflation uncertainty was unchanged at the one-year horizon but declined at both the three- and five-year horizons, indicating slightly more confidence in longer-term price stability.

• Expected home price growth remained unchanged at 3.0% for the fifth straight month, continuing its narrow range between 3.0% and 3.3% since August 2023.

• Gas price expectations declined -0.7 ppt to 3.5%, while food price expectations edged down -0.1 ppt to 5.7%; expectations rose for college costs (+1.2 ppts to 8.2%), rent (+0.2 ppts to 7.2%), and medical care (+0.1 ppt to 9.4%, highest since Feb 2023).

• One-year-ahead earnings growth expectations rose +0.2 ppt to 2.6%, remaining slightly below the 12-month average (2.7%).

• Unemployment expectations increased +1.4 ppts to 42.5%, marking a third consecutive monthly rise, while the perceived job loss probability declined -0.9 ppt to 14.0%.

• Job-finding expectations fell -0.6 ppt to 46.8%, staying well below the 12-month average of 50.6%.

• Expected household income growth eased -0.1 ppt to 2.8%, while expected spending growth edged up +0.1 ppt to 4.8%, holding within the recent 4.7–5.2% range.

• Perceptions of credit access improved to the most favorable levels since early 2022, though expectations for future household finances weakened, with more respondents expecting a deterioration over the next year.

• The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher in 12 months declined -0.9 ppt to 38.9%, indicating a slight dip in equity market optimism.

U.S. consumers’ short-term inflation expectations rose again in September, with the NY Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations showing the one-year-ahead outlook up +0.2 ppts to 3.4% (highest since April) and the five-year measure up +0.1 ppt to 3.0%, while the three-year horizon held steady at 3.0%.

• Inflation uncertainty eased at the one-year horizon, was unchanged at three years, and rose slightly at five years, suggesting mixed views on longer-term price risks.

• Expected home price growth was steady at 3.0% for a fourth straight month, while year-ahead price growth expectations rose for food (+0.3 ppt to 5.8%), gas (+0.3 ppt to 4.2%), medical care (+0.5 ppt to 9.3%), and rent (+1.0 ppt to 7.0%); only college costs fell (-0.8 ppt to 7.0%).

• Median earnings growth expectations declined -0.1 ppt to 2.4%, the lowest since April 2021, reinforcing softer wage outlooks.

• Unemployment expectations rose +2.0 ppts to 41.1%, and the perceived probability of job loss increased +0.4 ppt to 14.9%, indicating growing concern about labor conditions.

• The perceived job-finding probability rebounded modestly to 47.4% (from 44.9%) but stayed well below the 12-month average of 51.0%.

• Expected household income growth was unchanged at 2.9%, while spending expectations eased -0.3 ppt to 4.7%, slipping below the 12-month average.

• The probability of missing a debt payment fell -0.5 ppt to 12.6%, showing some financial stability, while expectations for higher savings rates and stock prices both improved slightly.