U.S. households’ one-year-ahead inflation expectations eased to 3.1% (-0.3 ppt MoM) in January, alongside steadier medium-term views and modestly firmer labor expectations.

• Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations declined to 3.1% (-0.3 ppt MoM), while three-year and five-year expectations held at 3.0%, indicating softer short-term inflation views with stable longer-term anchors.

• Inflation uncertainty decreased at the one-year and three-year horizons but increased at the five-year horizon, pointing to mixed dispersion across timeframes.

• Median home price growth expectations edged down to 2.9% (-0.1 ppt MoM), the lowest since July 2023, suggesting continued moderation in housing price outlooks.

• Year-ahead commodity price expectations fell for gas to 2.8% (-1.2 ppts), medical care to 9.8% (-0.1 ppt), and rent to 6.8% (-0.9 ppt), were unchanged for food at 5.7%, and rose for college costs to 9.0% (+0.7 ppt), showing divergent category-level expectations.

• Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations increased to 2.7% (+0.2 ppt), driven by households with income under $50,000, while expected household income growth slipped to 2.9% (-0.1 ppt).

• Labor market perceptions improved modestly: the perceived probability of job loss fell to 14.8% (-0.4 ppt), the expected quit rate rose to 18.7% (+1.2 ppts), and the probability of finding a job if displaced increased to 45.6% (+2.5 ppts), though remaining below its 12-month average.

• Household finance signals were mixed, with expected spending growth unchanged at 4.9%, credit availability expectations deteriorating, and the perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment declining to 13.7% (-1.6 ppts) but staying slightly above its 12-month average.