U.S. consumers’ short-term inflation expectations fell -0.2 ppt to 3.2% in October 2025, while medium- and long-term expectations held steady at 3.0%, reflecting stable price outlooks amid rising disagreement among respondents.

• Inflation uncertainty was unchanged at the one-year horizon but declined at both the three- and five-year horizons, indicating slightly more confidence in longer-term price stability.

• Expected home price growth remained unchanged at 3.0% for the fifth straight month, continuing its narrow range between 3.0% and 3.3% since August 2023.

• Gas price expectations declined -0.7 ppt to 3.5%, while food price expectations edged down -0.1 ppt to 5.7%; expectations rose for college costs (+1.2 ppts to 8.2%), rent (+0.2 ppts to 7.2%), and medical care (+0.1 ppt to 9.4%, highest since Feb 2023).

• One-year-ahead earnings growth expectations rose +0.2 ppt to 2.6%, remaining slightly below the 12-month average (2.7%).

• Unemployment expectations increased +1.4 ppts to 42.5%, marking a third consecutive monthly rise, while the perceived job loss probability declined -0.9 ppt to 14.0%.

• Job-finding expectations fell -0.6 ppt to 46.8%, staying well below the 12-month average of 50.6%.

• Expected household income growth eased -0.1 ppt to 2.8%, while expected spending growth edged up +0.1 ppt to 4.8%, holding within the recent 4.7–5.2% range.

• Perceptions of credit access improved to the most favorable levels since early 2022, though expectations for future household finances weakened, with more respondents expecting a deterioration over the next year.

• The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher in 12 months declined -0.9 ppt to 38.9%, indicating a slight dip in equity market optimism.