U.S. consumers’ inflation expectations were unchanged in November, with one-year-ahead expectations steady at 3.2% and medium- and long-term expectations holding at 3.0%, while views of household finances and future financial conditions deteriorated.

• Inflation uncertainty decreased at the five-year horizon and disagreement across respondents narrowed at all horizons, suggesting slightly more convergence in inflation views.

• Home price expectations held at 3.0% for the sixth straight month, while one-year-ahead expectations for food (+0.2 ppt to 5.9%), gas (+0.6 ppt to 4.1%), medical care (+0.7 ppt to 10.1%), college costs (+0.2 ppt to 8.4%) and rent (+1.1 ppts to 8.3%) all increased; medical cost expectations reached their highest reading since January 2014.

• Labor market expectations showed modest improvement, with unemployment expectations edging down to 42.1% (-0.4 ppt) and job-loss probability falling to 13.8%, its lowest reading since December 2024; job-finding expectations rose to 47.3%, though still below the 12-month average.

• Earnings growth expectations were unchanged at 2.6%, while expected household income growth ticked up to 2.9%, matching its 12-month average.

• Expected household spending growth increased to 5.0% (+0.2 ppt), remaining elevated relative to income expectations.

• Perceived credit access worsened, with more respondents reporting tighter conditions compared with a year ago, and expectations for future access unchanged; the probability of missing a minimum debt payment rose to 13.7%.

• Tax expectations increased to 4.1% (+0.9 ppt), the highest since June 2024, and expected government debt growth rose to 9.2%, the highest since July 2024.

• Financial perceptions weakened, with more households reporting they are worse off than a year ago and fewer expecting improvement over the next year.

• Equity sentiment softened slightly, as the perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher in 12 months slipped to 37.9% (-1.0 ppt).