U.S. consumers’ short-term inflation expectations rose again in September, with the NY Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations showing the one-year-ahead outlook up +0.2 ppts to 3.4% (highest since April) and the five-year measure up +0.1 ppt to 3.0%, while the three-year horizon held steady at 3.0%.

• Inflation uncertainty eased at the one-year horizon, was unchanged at three years, and rose slightly at five years, suggesting mixed views on longer-term price risks.

• Expected home price growth was steady at 3.0% for a fourth straight month, while year-ahead price growth expectations rose for food (+0.3 ppt to 5.8%), gas (+0.3 ppt to 4.2%), medical care (+0.5 ppt to 9.3%), and rent (+1.0 ppt to 7.0%); only college costs fell (-0.8 ppt to 7.0%).

• Median earnings growth expectations declined -0.1 ppt to 2.4%, the lowest since April 2021, reinforcing softer wage outlooks.

• Unemployment expectations rose +2.0 ppts to 41.1%, and the perceived probability of job loss increased +0.4 ppt to 14.9%, indicating growing concern about labor conditions.

• The perceived job-finding probability rebounded modestly to 47.4% (from 44.9%) but stayed well below the 12-month average of 51.0%.

• Expected household income growth was unchanged at 2.9%, while spending expectations eased -0.3 ppt to 4.7%, slipping below the 12-month average.

• The probability of missing a debt payment fell -0.5 ppt to 12.6%, showing some financial stability, while expectations for higher savings rates and stock prices both improved slightly.