The NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations showed one-year-ahead inflation expectations ticking up to 3.2% (+0.1 ppt) in August 2025, while three- and five-year expectations held steady at 3.0% and 2.9%, amid weaker labor market outlooks and deteriorating household sentiment.

• Median inflation uncertainty rose at the one- and three-year horizons, while home price growth expectations stayed at 3.0% for a third straight month.

• Year-ahead commodity price expectations declined for rent (-1.0 ppts to 6.0%), college (-0.9 ppts to 7.8%), and medical care (-0.4 ppts to 8.8%), but were unchanged for gas (3.9%) and food (5.5%).

• Mean unemployment expectations rose +1.7 ppts to 39.1%, while job loss probability edged up +0.1 ppt to 14.5%.

• Job finding probability dropped -5.8 ppts to 44.9%, the lowest since the series began in 2013, with the sharpest declines among those with at most a high school education.

• Earnings growth expectations slipped -0.1 ppt to 2.5%, staying below the 12-month average of 2.8%.

• Household income growth expectations were steady at 2.9%, while spending expectations ticked up +0.1 ppt to 5.0%.

• The probability of missing a debt payment rose +0.8 ppt to 13.1%, though still below the 12-month average.

• Expected tax increases rose +0.5 ppt to 3.4%, while government debt expectations fell -2.5 ppts to 6.6%.

• The share expecting higher savings rates rose slightly (+0.7 ppt to 24.3%), while stock price expectations increased +0.6 ppt to 38.9%.