The NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations measure of median inflation expectations rose to 3.1% (+0.1 ppt) at the one-year-ahead horizon and to 2.9% (+0.3 ppts) at the five-year horizon in July 2025, while holding steady at 3.0% for the three-year horizon.

• Mean unemployment expectations fell -2.3 ppts to 37.4%, lowest since Jan 2025; job loss probability rose +0.4 ppts to 14.4%.
• Median household income growth was unchanged at 2.9%, while spending expectations ticked up +0.1 ppt to 4.9%.
• Expected rent inflation dropped -2.1 ppts to 7.0%, and food inflation expectations were flat at 5.5%.
• Median tax change expectations fell -0.6 ppts to 2.9%, the lowest since Oct 2020, while government debt expectations jumped +1.8 ppts to 9.1%.
• Household financial sentiment improved, with fewer respondents reporting they are worse off now or expect to be worse off next year.