February U.S. new-vehicle sales are forecast +6.9% MoM and -3.4% YoY, showing seasonal rebound but softer demand.

• Sales volume is expected at 1.19M units, -3.4% YoY with equal selling days, indicating weaker demand relative to last year.

• Compared with January, sales rise +6.9% MoM despite two fewer selling days, consistent with the normal seasonal February improvement.

• SAAR is projected at 15.6M (Jan: 14.9M; Feb last year: 16.0M), meaning activity recovers from weather disruptions but remains below year-ago pace.

• Q4 momentum slowed last year and weakness is expected to continue, suggesting the lower sales pace persists into early 2026.

• The expiration of EV tax credits and high vehicle prices are cited as ongoing headwinds, contributing to reduced buyer activity.

• Economic uncertainty is also noted as weighing on the market outlook through 2026.

• Higher tax refunds from last year’s legislation may provide a short-term boost in coming months, offering temporary support to sales.

January U.S. new-vehicle sales are forecast at a 15.3M SAAR (vs 15.5M YoY; 16.1M prior month), signaling slower momentum entering 2026.

• The January SAAR is expected to come in at 15.3M units, down from 15.5M in January last year and from 16.1M in December, indicating cooling sales pace after late-2025 strength.

• New-vehicle sales volume is forecast to rise +3.2% YoY, though the increase is largely attributed to one additional selling day, suggesting limited underlying demand improvement.

• Sales are projected to fall -23.5% MoM from December, consistent with the typical seasonal slowdown following the holiday period.

• Market momentum weakened in Q4 2025 after a strong Q3, with the slower pace carrying into early 2026.

• Severe winter weather late in January is expected to disrupt dealership traffic, potentially weighing on near-term sales activity.

• Full-year 2026 sales are forecast at 15.8M units, down from an estimated 16.3M in 2025, pointing to a softer annual outlook.

• Slower economic growth, softer job creation, and the loss of EV tax incentives are cited as factors expected to weigh on demand through 2026.

December U.S. new-vehicle sales are forecast at a 15.9M SAAR (-5.4% YoY; +1.9% MoM), showing a modest late-year pickup amid a softer annual comparison.

• December sales volume is expected to fall -3.5% YoY but rise +12.7% MoM, reflecting seasonal improvement from November despite weaker demand than last December.

• Full-year 2025 new-vehicle sales are projected at 16.3M units (+1.8% YoY), making 2025 the strongest sales year since 2019.

• The Q4 sales pace is described as relatively weak, consistent with a slowdown following nine months of stronger activity earlier in the year.

• General Motors is expected to lead the U.S. market for a fourth consecutive year, with 2025 market share rising to 17.3% (from 16.8% in 2024).

• GM’s full-year sales are projected above 2.8M units (+5%+ YoY), though Q4 volumes are expected to be lower than both last year and Q3, indicating some loss of momentum.

• Toyota’s sales are forecast to rise +8.4% YoY, with market share increasing to 15.5% (from 14.5%), contributing to further share gains among the largest automakers.

• The top four automakers (GM, Toyota, Ford, Hyundai) are projected to gain a combined 2.6 ppts of market share in 2025, while most other manufacturers see declines in sales and share.

2026 forecasts:

November’s new-vehicle sales pace is expected to finish near 15.7 million, down from last year’s
16.5 million level and up from October’s 15.3 million pace.

• Sales volume is expected to reach 1.27 million in November, down 7.8% from last year and down 1% from last month.
• Electric vehicle sales are expected to remain low following the tax credit’s expiration, which will affect November’s totals.

October’s new-vehicle sales pace is expected to finish near 15.7 million, down from last year’s 16.1
million level and down from September’s strong 16.4 million pace.

• Sales volume is expected to reach 1.30 million in October, down 3.1% from last year but up 2.7% from last month.
• Electric vehicle sales are expected to drop sharply following the tax credit’s expiration, affecting October’s totals

U.S. new-vehicle sales are forecast to rise +6.0% YoY in September 2025 to a SAAR of 16.2 million, though volumes are down -14.9% MoM due to fewer selling days.

• Q3 2025 sales are projected +6.2% YoY but -1.6% vs Q2, with growth driven almost entirely by GM, Toyota, Ford, and Hyundai (+11.2% YoY) while the rest of the industry is nearly flat (+0.1%).

• Year-to-date, the Big Four are expected to post +9.1% YoY gains, while all other automakers combined decline -2.0% YoY.

• EV sales in Q3 are forecast at a record 410,000 units (+21.1% YoY; +30% vs Q2), reaching nearly 10% of total sales—the highest share on record.

• The previous EV peak was Q4 2024, when 365,824 units were sold (8.7% share).

• Cox Automotive raised its full-year forecast to a 15.8–16.4 million range, with a new baseline of 16.1 million (up from 15.7 million after Q2).

• EV demand has been bolstered by buyers moving ahead of the $7,500 federal tax credit expiration at the end of September, though sales are expected to slow sharply in Q4.

• Market headwinds include higher vehicle prices from tariff-driven import costs and declining EV leasing (forecast lease penetration lowered from 25% to 24%).

Updated full-year forecasts: