U.S. new-vehicle sales are forecast to rise +6.0% YoY in September 2025 to a SAAR of 16.2 million, though volumes are down -14.9% MoM due to fewer selling days.

• Q3 2025 sales are projected +6.2% YoY but -1.6% vs Q2, with growth driven almost entirely by GM, Toyota, Ford, and Hyundai (+11.2% YoY) while the rest of the industry is nearly flat (+0.1%).

• Year-to-date, the Big Four are expected to post +9.1% YoY gains, while all other automakers combined decline -2.0% YoY.

• EV sales in Q3 are forecast at a record 410,000 units (+21.1% YoY; +30% vs Q2), reaching nearly 10% of total sales—the highest share on record.

• The previous EV peak was Q4 2024, when 365,824 units were sold (8.7% share).

• Cox Automotive raised its full-year forecast to a 15.8–16.4 million range, with a new baseline of 16.1 million (up from 15.7 million after Q2).

• EV demand has been bolstered by buyers moving ahead of the $7,500 federal tax credit expiration at the end of September, though sales are expected to slow sharply in Q4.

• Market headwinds include higher vehicle prices from tariff-driven import costs and declining EV leasing (forecast lease penetration lowered from 25% to 24%).

Updated full-year forecasts: