February U.S. new-vehicle sales are forecast +6.9% MoM and -3.4% YoY, showing seasonal rebound but softer demand.

• Sales volume is expected at 1.19M units, -3.4% YoY with equal selling days, indicating weaker demand relative to last year.

• Compared with January, sales rise +6.9% MoM despite two fewer selling days, consistent with the normal seasonal February improvement.

• SAAR is projected at 15.6M (Jan: 14.9M; Feb last year: 16.0M), meaning activity recovers from weather disruptions but remains below year-ago pace.

• Q4 momentum slowed last year and weakness is expected to continue, suggesting the lower sales pace persists into early 2026.

• The expiration of EV tax credits and high vehicle prices are cited as ongoing headwinds, contributing to reduced buyer activity.

• Economic uncertainty is also noted as weighing on the market outlook through 2026.

• Higher tax refunds from last year’s legislation may provide a short-term boost in coming months, offering temporary support to sales.