January U.S. new-vehicle sales are forecast at a 15.3M SAAR (vs 15.5M YoY; 16.1M prior month), signaling slower momentum entering 2026.

• The January SAAR is expected to come in at 15.3M units, down from 15.5M in January last year and from 16.1M in December, indicating cooling sales pace after late-2025 strength.

• New-vehicle sales volume is forecast to rise +3.2% YoY, though the increase is largely attributed to one additional selling day, suggesting limited underlying demand improvement.

• Sales are projected to fall -23.5% MoM from December, consistent with the typical seasonal slowdown following the holiday period.

• Market momentum weakened in Q4 2025 after a strong Q3, with the slower pace carrying into early 2026.

• Severe winter weather late in January is expected to disrupt dealership traffic, potentially weighing on near-term sales activity.

• Full-year 2026 sales are forecast at 15.8M units, down from an estimated 16.3M in 2025, pointing to a softer annual outlook.

• Slower economic growth, softer job creation, and the loss of EV tax incentives are cited as factors expected to weigh on demand through 2026.