December U.S. new-vehicle sales are forecast at a 15.9M SAAR (-5.4% YoY; +1.9% MoM), showing a modest late-year pickup amid a softer annual comparison.

• December sales volume is expected to fall -3.5% YoY but rise +12.7% MoM, reflecting seasonal improvement from November despite weaker demand than last December.

• Full-year 2025 new-vehicle sales are projected at 16.3M units (+1.8% YoY), making 2025 the strongest sales year since 2019.

• The Q4 sales pace is described as relatively weak, consistent with a slowdown following nine months of stronger activity earlier in the year.

• General Motors is expected to lead the U.S. market for a fourth consecutive year, with 2025 market share rising to 17.3% (from 16.8% in 2024).

• GM’s full-year sales are projected above 2.8M units (+5%+ YoY), though Q4 volumes are expected to be lower than both last year and Q3, indicating some loss of momentum.

• Toyota’s sales are forecast to rise +8.4% YoY, with market share increasing to 15.5% (from 14.5%), contributing to further share gains among the largest automakers.

• The top four automakers (GM, Toyota, Ford, Hyundai) are projected to gain a combined 2.6 ppts of market share in 2025, while most other manufacturers see declines in sales and share.

2026 forecasts: