The overall Mid-America Business Conditions Index rose +0.7 pts to 50.5 in October, moving back above the growth-neutral threshold and signaling a modest return to expansion in the regional manufacturing sector.
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The employment index increased to 46.9 from 44.9 but remained below 50.0 for the seventh straight month, showing continued contraction in regional manufacturing jobs.
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Approximately 16% of supply managers reported layoffs in October, while the insured unemployment rate edged up to 0.7% from 0.6% a year earlier.
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The wholesale price index eased slightly to 62.9 from 64.1, yet still indicated elevated inflationary pressures, partly tied to higher import prices.
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On average, firms said tariffs raised input costs by 7.9% in 2025, and 53% of firms sourcing internationally reported re-shoring some production.
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The new export orders index fell to 40.8 from 43.4, marking six consecutive months of declines amid trade retaliation and weaker foreign demand.
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Imports also weakened, with the index dropping to 34.0 from 34.8 as firms cut back on purchases from abroad following earlier record import volumes.
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The business confidence index improved to 42.2 from 38.2 but remained subdued, as only 21.1% of respondents expected better conditions in the next six months.
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Inventories rose to 50.3 from 48.6, reflecting precautionary stockpiling in anticipation of potential tariff increases.
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Across the nine-state region, Missouri led with a robust reading of 62.7, while Kansas and North Dakota slipped below 50.0, highlighting divergent state-level trends.
USA
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Creighton University
