
The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, moved into slightly positive territory in October, lifting to +0.35% in October from +0.10% in September.
After oscillating around a zero reading for the past six months, the Leading Index has built up some momentum heading into year-end, with the October update pointing to growth running at a slightly above-trend pace in early 2026. While the growth signal is not particularly strong, it is consistent with Westpac’s view that activity will continue to pick up steam over the rest of this year and into next, with GDP growth forecast to rise from 1.8%yr currently to 2.4%yr over 2026. Westpac views this as roughly around-trend, with the current slightly-above-trend momentum evident in the Leading Index expected to encounter some headwinds as we enter the new year.