The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index six-month annualised growth rate slowed to 0.03% in June from 0.11% in May, signaling that Australian economic activity is trending flat and losing momentum.

• The index has declined steadily from 0.33% in December 2024, dragged down by weaker commodity prices (-0.24 ppts) and softer labor market indicators (-0.28 ppts).
• Dwelling approvals and consumer unemployment expectations remained weak, while financial markets and US industrial production provided modest support.
• Westpac expects GDP growth of just 1.7% YoY in 2025, slightly better than 2024’s 1.3% but well below the long-term average.
• The RBA held rates steady in July, but Westpac forecasts a 25 bp cut in August if the upcoming Q2 CPI print is benign.
• Further rate cuts are anticipated in November and into early 2026 as part of a gradual easing cycle.