The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, slipped back to +0.16% in November from +0.32% in October.

The Leading Index has pared back from a brief stint in slightly above-trend territory, largely reflecting the recent sell-off in share markets and a cooling in consumer expectations. While the Index remains in positive territory, it is fairly subdued and indicative of some stalling in momentum. Westpac expects that activity will only pick up slightly from here, from 2.1%yr currently to 2.4%yr over 2026, which Westpac views as being roughly around trend.