Australia’s Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index rose to +0.04% in September 2025 (from -0.16% in August), nudging back above trend and suggesting near-trend growth momentum heading into early 2026.

• The Index has slowed from a peak of +0.83% in February to around zero since June, reflecting fading momentum but continued stability around trend levels.

• Over the past six months, the Index growth rate moderated by -0.44 ppts, mainly due to weaker dwelling approvals (-0.24 ppts) and lower commodity prices (-0.21 ppts).

• Reduced support from the yield spread and consumer sentiment components subtracted -0.39 ppts since March, showing persistent caution among households.

• Offsetting factors included a 12.8% rally in the S&P/ASX200, which added +0.32 ppts to overall Index growth.

• Westpac projects GDP growth of about 2% in 2025, rising to a trend pace in 2026, supported by gradual recovery in housing and commodity sectors.

• The RBA next meets on November 3–4, with Westpac expecting the next move to be a rate cut, contingent on CPI and labor market data.