The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index slowed to +0.02% in January from +0.44% in December, signaling growth momentum stalling into 2026.

• Momentum moved from slightly above trend back in line with trend, indicating the late‑2025 pickup has faded at the start of 2026.
• Compared with six months ago, the growth rate moderated 0.17ppts from +0.19% in July to near‑flat +0.02%, pointing to a broader loss of momentum.
• Consumer expectations shaved 0.16ppts and dwelling approvals cut 0.23ppts, showing the slowdown is concentrated in consumer and housing channels.
• Commodity prices added 0.36ppts over six months, but AUD strength trimmed the boost, suggesting external support may be waning.
• Westpac expects GDP growth to hold around 2.5% in 2026, implying a near‑trend pace despite the softer leading signal.