MTS Insights

ADP estimates that US private employment increased at an average pace of 15k in the four weeks to July 11th, down from 16.25k in the four weeks to July 4th.

• ADP's weekly data continues to show a weaker pace of hiring as the summer goes on. This is now the 5th straight week of a slower increase in private employment.
• There were minor revisions to the last two weeks of data: June 27th from 19,250 to 19,750, July 4th from 16,500 to 16,250.

The national median rent increased by 0.2% in July, and now stands at $1,388. Rents are still down 1.1% compared to one year ago, but year-over-year rent growth has been inching up and the vacancy rate is inching down, signaling a modest tightening of rental market conditions.

• National Median Rent: $1,388 per month as of July 2026.
• Month-Over-Month Rent Growth: Rents increased 0.2% in July, the sixth consecutive monthly increase.
• Year-Over-Year Rent Growth: Rents are down 1.1% compared to July 2025, though this figure is bouncing back after bottoming out at -1.6% in April.
• Vacancy rate: The national multifamily vacancy rate stands at 7.2%, near a recent peak, but declining for the first time since late 2021.
• Time on Market: Units are taking an average of 30 days to get leased after being listed.

July Rent Growth: Up 0.2% month-over-month, down 1.1% year-over-year

The national median rent ticked up by 0.2 percent in July, increasing for the sixth consecutive month. We are now approaching the tail end of the peak moving season, and the off-season cooldown in prices is likely to begin in another month or two. This trend is in line with typical seasonal patterns – prices generally increase in the spring and summer when most moves take place, and then soften in the fall and winter as moving activity slows.

The broad contours of this seasonal pattern are a dependable trend, but in recent years we’ve seen sharper winter dips and more modest summer bumps as the market has gone through a soft spell amid a wave of new multifamily construction. As a result, full year rent growth has been negative for each of the past three years. Currently, the national median rent is 1.1 percent cheaper than it was one year ago. While still negative, year-over-year rent growth has now ticked up for three straight months, after bottoming out at -1.6 percent in April. That April figure matched a record low in our estimates, going back to 2017, as demand stagnated amid a backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainty. But we now appear to have hit an inflection point, signalling that the rental market may finally be stabilizing as construction slows and the recent influx of new units gets absorbed.

In dollar terms, the national median monthly rent now stands at $1,388, down $15 compared to July 2025. Prices peaked in mid-2022 after a year and a half of skyrocketing growth. Since then, the nationwide median rent has been gradually drifting down and has fallen from that peak by a total of 3.7 percent, or $54 per month. But despite the prolonged pullback in prices, today’s rent levels remain 21 percent higher than they were at the start of 2021.

Multifamily vacancy ticks down to 7.2%, first decline since 2021

The most important driver behind the soft market conditions that have persisted for over three years has been a historic surge of multifamily construction. The construction boom peaked in 2024, when we saw over 600 thousand new multifamily units hit the market, the most new supply in a single year since 1986. Since then, deliveries of new apartments have slowed considerably, albeit while remaining fairly robust by historic standards. Despite being at the tail end of the construction boom, the market had still been struggling to absorb the swell of new inventory. That is now finally changing, as we see multifamily occupancy also hitting an inflection point in tandem with rent growth.

Our national vacancy index – which measures the average vacancy rate of stabilized properties in our marketplace (i.e. those that have completed their initial lease-up phase) – hit a peak of 7.3 percent in February, marking the highest level since we started tracking occupancy in 2017. Since then however, the vacancy rate has been slowly creeping down, and now sits at 7.2 percent. This marks the first time that we have seen a decline in our national vacancy index since late 2021. After bottoming out amid the pandemic era housing frenzy, the vacancy rate gradually loosened from record lows to record highs, but it appears to have finally hit its peak.

That said, the recent decline has been modest, and the vacancy rate remains elevated above its long-run average. And with mixed news on the labor market combined with renewed inflation concerns, question marks around housing demand remain in play. Assuming that the vacancy continues to tighten, the change is likely to continue to be slow and gradual.

List-to-Lease time remains elevated at 30 days

As more vacant units have come onto the market, those units have also been sitting vacant for longer. Our time on market index – also referred to as “list-to-lease” time – tells us the typical number of days that elapse between when a unit is first listed on our platform and when it is eventually leased. Units leased in July had been sitting on the market for an average of 30 days, flat compared to last month and somewhat elevated for this time of year.

This month’s reading is the longest that we’ve seen in any July going back to 2019 when our tracking begins (January’s 41 days set the overall record). Units are taking two days longer to turn over than at this time last year, and twelve days longer than they were in July 2021 when the market was at its hottest. This lengthened list-to-lease time is a reminder that despite the recent inflection points in pricing and occupancy, rental market conditions remain decidedly cool.

Rent declines are mostly concentrated in Sun Belt markets

There are 56 large metropolitan areas across the country that have a population over one million. In July, rents increased month-over-month in 46 of these markets, but rents remain down year-over-year in 30 of them. Rent trends vary significantly by region, with annual declines currently concentrated primarily in the South and Mountain West regions. Meanwhile, many markets in the Northeast, Midwest, and parts of the West Coast continue to see prices trend up.

San Antonio is currently logging the nation’s sharpest year-over-year rent decline among large metros, with the metro-wide median rent there down 5.2 percent in the last 12 months. Nearby Austin, which had consistently been seeing the biggest rent declines as it added new apartments at the fastest pace of any major housing market in the county, has now fallen to third on the list, as rent declines there have finally begun to moderate. As of July, Austin rents are down 3.7 percent year-over-year, still a meaningful decline, but less than half of the 7.7 year-over-year decline that the metro experienced at its softest. The markets at the epicenter of the construction boom are still seeing the nation’s biggest price declines (in addition to San Antonio and Austin, see e.g. Denver, Phoenix, Tampa, and Nashville), but they appear to have bottomed out, and the tide now turning.

At the other end of the spectrum, the two Bay Area metros – San Francisco and San Jose are currently logging the nation’s fastest year-over-year rent growth at +9.4 percent and +7.6 percent, respectively, as the AI boom has created a wave of high-paying tech jobs there. A number of midwest markets (e.g. Milwaukee, Chicago, and Minneapolis) have also been maintaining steady positive rent growth amid soft national conditions, with the region’s relative affordability propping up demand.

Conclusion

As the rental market nears the end of its busy summer leasing season, we are seeing signs that the tide may be turning on the soft conditions that have defined the market over the past three-plus years. Year-over-year rent growth is ticking up, the vacancy rate is ticking down, and list-to-lease times have gotten shorter. But despite the modest tightening of recent months, multifamily conditions remain notably cool overall, and an uncertain macroeconomic outlook presents risks to rental demand. The coming months will provide more clarity on whether the market is simply plateauing or truly turning the corner to meaningfully tighter conditions.