Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey

Data Industry PMI

Source: Richmond Fed
Source Link: https://www.richmondfed.org/
Frequency: Monthly
Next Release(s): May 27th, 2026 10:00 AM

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The Richmond Fed manufacturing index fell to -10 in February (Jan: -6), signaling a modest worsening in factory activity.
- Shipments declined to -13 (Jan: -5) and new orders slipped to -9 (Jan: -6), indicating weaker demand and output conditions in the current month.
- Employment edged down to -7 (Jan: -6), showing slightly more firms reported payroll declines than increases.
- Local business conditions dropped to -15 (Jan: -8), suggesting broader deterioration in assessments of current operating environment.
- Expectations improved for local conditions at 22 (Jan: 19) and employment outlook rose to 6 (Jan: 2), pointing to firmer forward sentiment despite weak current activity.
- Future shipments registered 29 (Jan: 34) and future new orders 35 (Jan: 36), remaining positive but easing from the prior month.
- Prices paid growth slowed to 6.52 (Jan: 7.06) and prices received to 4.25 (Jan: 4.58), indicating moderating input and output price pressures.
- Firms expected price growth to moderate further over the next 12 months, suggesting easing inflation expectations within manufacturing.
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Fifth District manufacturing activity was little changed in January, with the composite index at -6 (Dec: -7), indicating continued mild contraction with slight monthly improvement.
- The composite manufacturing index edged up to -6 (Dec: -7; Nov: -15), showing a slower pace of contraction than in prior months.
- Shipments rose to -5 (Dec: -11), reflecting a notable easing in the decline in outbound manufacturing activity.
- New orders improved slightly to -6 (Dec: -8), pointing to somewhat firmer demand conditions than in December.
- Employment fell to -6 (Dec: -1), indicating more firms reported declining payrolls compared with last month.
- Local business conditions held near recent levels at -8 (Dec: -9), suggesting little change in assessments of current conditions.
- Expectations for shipments increased to 34 (Dec: 28) and new orders rose to 36 (Dec: 27), signaling stronger outlooks for activity in the months ahead.
- The future local business conditions index improved to 19 (Dec: 16), while future employment slipped to 2 (Dec: 8), showing firmer sentiment on activity but softer hiring expectations.
- Prices paid growth increased slightly in January while prices received growth decreased somewhat, indicating a modest widening between input and output price trends.
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The Richmond Fed’s Fifth District Manufacturing Index improved to -7 in December (from -15 in November), showing slower contraction in regional manufacturing activity.
- Shipments rose to -11 (Nov: -14), indicating a reduced pace of decline in outbound manufacturing activity.
- New orders increased to -8 (Nov: -22), pointing to a notable easing in demand weakness relative to the prior month.
- Employment improved to -1 (Nov: -7), suggesting fewer firms reported declining payrolls, though conditions remained slightly negative.
- Local business conditions strengthened to -9 (Nov: -20), reflecting less pessimism about current regional conditions.
- Expectations for activity improved, with future shipments rising to 28 (Nov: 25) and future new orders edging up to 27 (Nov: 26), indicating firmer outlooks six months ahead.
- The future employment index increased to 8 (Nov: -1), signaling more firms expect hiring gains than losses.
- Price pressures were mixed, as the growth rate of prices paid eased slightly in December while prices received rose notably, narrowing the gap between input and output price growth.
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The Richmond Fed’s Fifth District Manufacturing Index fell sharply to -15 in November (from -4 in October), reflecting a broad downturn in activity driven by weaker shipments and new orders.
- Shipments dropped to -14 (from 4), marking a significant reversal and pointing to a notable pullback in output during the month.
- New Orders declined to -22 (from -6), signaling a deeper contraction in demand compared with October.
- Backlogs remained soft at -23 (from -16), indicating continued order depletion and limited forward momentum.
- Employment improved slightly to -7 (from -10), suggesting a slower pace of job reductions even as overall conditions weakened.
- Local Business Conditions fell to -20 (from -1), the weakest reading in three months and consistent with broader regional softness.
- Expectations strengthened across several categories, with future Shipments rising to 25 (from 13) and future New Orders increasing to 26 (from 12), pointing to improved sentiment looking six months ahead.
- Price pressures firmed, as Prices Paid rose to 6.84% (from 5.81%), while Prices Received held nearly steady at 3.09%, indicating slightly higher input cost growth and stable selling price trends.
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The Richmond Fed Fifth District Manufacturing Index improved to -4 in October 2025 (from -17 in September), signaling continued contraction but at a slower pace.
- Shipments rose sharply to 4 (from -20), marking a return to positive territory and indicating stabilization in output.
- New Orders improved to -6 (from -15), showing softer declines in demand, while Backlogs rose to -16 (from -21), remaining negative but less weak.
- Employment increased to -10 (from -15), suggesting modest improvement, though hiring activity stayed subdued; Wages rose slightly to 15 (from 13).
- Local Business Conditions strengthened to -1 (from -12), but expectations for future conditions slipped to -5 (from -1).
- Capital Expenditures remained weak at -10 (from -16), while Equipment & Software Spending stayed soft at -10 (from -11).
- Prices Paid dropped to 5.81% (from 7.22%), and Prices Received eased to 3.04% (from 4.02%), indicating slower cost and price growth.
- Over the next year, firms expected input cost growth to moderate further to 4.68%, while price growth received was projected to rise modestly to 3.63%.
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The Richmond Fed Fifth District Manufacturing Index declined to -17 in September (from -7 in August), signaling a sharper contraction in activity across shipments, orders, and employment.
- Shipments fell to -20 (from -5), and new orders dropped to -15 (from -6), pointing to weaker demand conditions.
- Backlogs worsened to -21 (from -12), while capacity utilization decreased to -18 (from -14), suggesting continued slack in operations.
- Employment declined to -15 (from -11), even as wages remained elevated at 13 (though down from 22 in August), reflecting labor cost pressures alongside reduced hiring.
- Local business conditions weakened to -12 (from 0), though expectations for six months ahead improved modestly to -1 (from -10).
- Vendor lead times were steady at 10 (from 11), showing little change in supply chain pressures.
- Prices paid held at 7.22% (from 7.24%), while prices received increased to 4.02% (from 3.14%), indicating input costs remain high but firms are regaining some pricing power.
- Expectations showed softer outlooks for shipments (0 from 13), new orders (8 from 9), and employment (1 from 3), but price growth expectations remained firm, with prices paid at 6.47% and prices received at 4.74%.
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The Richmond Fed Fifth District Manufacturing Index improved to -7 in August (from -20 in July), signaling a slower pace of contraction but continued weakness in activity.
- Shipments rose to -5 (from -18), and New Orders increased to -6 (from -25), though both remained negative.
- Employment improved slightly to -11 (from -16), while Wages rose to 22 (from 17), reflecting ongoing labor cost pressures.
- Local Business Conditions moved up to 0 (from -11), but expectations weakened to -10 (from -2).
- Prices Paid accelerated to 7.24% (from 5.65%), while Prices Received held steady at 3.14% (from 3.16%).
- Firms see input price growth in the next 6 months staying around 7% YoY, but selling price growth is expected to stay around 4% YoY.
- Backlogs improved to -12 (from -30), and Vendor Lead Times rose to 11 (from 7), suggesting modest easing in supply conditions.
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The Fifth District Manufacturing Index fell to -20 in July (from -8 in June), indicating a sharp deterioration in manufacturing activity across shipments, orders, and employment.
- Shipments dropped to -18 (from -5), New Orders to -25 (from -12), and Employment to -16 (from -6), all deepening in contraction.
- Backlog of Orders declined to -30 (from -18), while Capacity Utilization fell to -14 (from -5).
- Vendor Lead Times shortened, with the index down to 7 (from 15).
- Prices Paid eased to 5.65% (from 6.10%) and Prices Received to 3.16% (from 3.57%); firms expect Prices Received to rise over the next 12 months.
- Future indexes for Shipments and New Orders rose modestly, but the Employment Outlook worsened to -10 (from -4).
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The Fifth District Manufacturing Index rose to -7 in June from -9 in May, indicating continued contraction in activity but at a slower pace.
- Shipments improved to -3 (from -10) and New Orders to -12 (from -14), while Backlogs edged down to -20 (from -19).
- Employment declined slightly to -5 (from -2) and Local Business Conditions remained weak at -20 (from -25).
- Vendor Lead Times ticked up to 16 (from 15), while Raw Materials Inventories jumped to 28 (from 18).
- Prices Paid increased to 6.10% (from 5.35%), while Prices Received rose to 3.57% (from 2.73%).
- Price expectations over the next 12 months eased for Prices Paid (5.21% from 6.75%) but rose for Prices Received (3.91% from 2.65%).
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The Fifth District Manufacturing Index rose to -9 in May from -13 in April, signaling a slower pace of contraction in regional manufacturing activity.
- Shipments improved to -10 (from -17), and New Orders rose to -14 (from -15), while Employment edged up to -2 (from -5).
- Local Business Conditions deteriorated further to -25 (from -21), but future expectations rebounded to -6 (from -37).
- Backlogs improved to -19 (from -24), and Vendor Lead Times jumped to 15 (from 1).
- Prices Paid were nearly flat at 5.35% YoY (vs 5.37% prior), while Prices Received rose slightly to 2.73% (from 2.65%).
- Expectations for Prices Paid eased from 8.38% YoY to 6.75% YoY with Prices Received expectations also falling from 5.63% YoY to 4.84% YoY.
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