The Richmond Fed manufacturing index fell to -10 in February (Jan: -6), signaling a modest worsening in factory activity.

• Shipments declined to -13 (Jan: -5) and new orders slipped to -9 (Jan: -6), indicating weaker demand and output conditions in the current month.

• Employment edged down to -7 (Jan: -6), showing slightly more firms reported payroll declines than increases.

• Local business conditions dropped to -15 (Jan: -8), suggesting broader deterioration in assessments of current operating environment.

• Expectations improved for local conditions at 22 (Jan: 19) and employment outlook rose to 6 (Jan: 2), pointing to firmer forward sentiment despite weak current activity.

• Future shipments registered 29 (Jan: 34) and future new orders 35 (Jan: 36), remaining positive but easing from the prior month.

• Prices paid growth slowed to 6.52 (Jan: 7.06) and prices received to 4.25 (Jan: 4.58), indicating moderating input and output price pressures.

• Firms expected price growth to moderate further over the next 12 months, suggesting easing inflation expectations within manufacturing.

Fifth District manufacturing activity was little changed in January, with the composite index at -6 (Dec: -7), indicating continued mild contraction with slight monthly improvement.

• The composite manufacturing index edged up to -6 (Dec: -7; Nov: -15), showing a slower pace of contraction than in prior months.

• Shipments rose to -5 (Dec: -11), reflecting a notable easing in the decline in outbound manufacturing activity.

• New orders improved slightly to -6 (Dec: -8), pointing to somewhat firmer demand conditions than in December.

• Employment fell to -6 (Dec: -1), indicating more firms reported declining payrolls compared with last month.

• Local business conditions held near recent levels at -8 (Dec: -9), suggesting little change in assessments of current conditions.

• Expectations for shipments increased to 34 (Dec: 28) and new orders rose to 36 (Dec: 27), signaling stronger outlooks for activity in the months ahead.

• The future local business conditions index improved to 19 (Dec: 16), while future employment slipped to 2 (Dec: 8), showing firmer sentiment on activity but softer hiring expectations.

• Prices paid growth increased slightly in January while prices received growth decreased somewhat, indicating a modest widening between input and output price trends.

The Richmond Fed’s Fifth District Manufacturing Index improved to -7 in December (from -15 in November), showing slower contraction in regional manufacturing activity.

• Shipments rose to -11 (Nov: -14), indicating a reduced pace of decline in outbound manufacturing activity.
• New orders increased to -8 (Nov: -22), pointing to a notable easing in demand weakness relative to the prior month.
• Employment improved to -1 (Nov: -7), suggesting fewer firms reported declining payrolls, though conditions remained slightly negative.
• Local business conditions strengthened to -9 (Nov: -20), reflecting less pessimism about current regional conditions.
• Expectations for activity improved, with future shipments rising to 28 (Nov: 25) and future new orders edging up to 27 (Nov: 26), indicating firmer outlooks six months ahead.
• The future employment index increased to 8 (Nov: -1), signaling more firms expect hiring gains than losses.
• Price pressures were mixed, as the growth rate of prices paid eased slightly in December while prices received rose notably, narrowing the gap between input and output price growth.

The Richmond Fed’s Fifth District Manufacturing Index fell sharply to -15 in November (from -4 in October), reflecting a broad downturn in activity driven by weaker shipments and new orders.

• Shipments dropped to -14 (from 4), marking a significant reversal and pointing to a notable pullback in output during the month.

• New Orders declined to -22 (from -6), signaling a deeper contraction in demand compared with October.

• Backlogs remained soft at -23 (from -16), indicating continued order depletion and limited forward momentum.

• Employment improved slightly to -7 (from -10), suggesting a slower pace of job reductions even as overall conditions weakened.

• Local Business Conditions fell to -20 (from -1), the weakest reading in three months and consistent with broader regional softness.

• Expectations strengthened across several categories, with future Shipments rising to 25 (from 13) and future New Orders increasing to 26 (from 12), pointing to improved sentiment looking six months ahead.

• Price pressures firmed, as Prices Paid rose to 6.84% (from 5.81%), while Prices Received held nearly steady at 3.09%, indicating slightly higher input cost growth and stable selling price trends.

The Richmond Fed Fifth District Manufacturing Index improved to -4 in October 2025 (from -17 in September), signaling continued contraction but at a slower pace.

• Shipments rose sharply to 4 (from -20), marking a return to positive territory and indicating stabilization in output.

• New Orders improved to -6 (from -15), showing softer declines in demand, while Backlogs rose to -16 (from -21), remaining negative but less weak.

• Employment increased to -10 (from -15), suggesting modest improvement, though hiring activity stayed subdued; Wages rose slightly to 15 (from 13).

• Local Business Conditions strengthened to -1 (from -12), but expectations for future conditions slipped to -5 (from -1).

• Capital Expenditures remained weak at -10 (from -16), while Equipment & Software Spending stayed soft at -10 (from -11).

• Prices Paid dropped to 5.81% (from 7.22%), and Prices Received eased to 3.04% (from 4.02%), indicating slower cost and price growth.

• Over the next year, firms expected input cost growth to moderate further to 4.68%, while price growth received was projected to rise modestly to 3.63%.

The Richmond Fed Fifth District Manufacturing Index declined to -17 in September (from -7 in August), signaling a sharper contraction in activity across shipments, orders, and employment.

• Shipments fell to -20 (from -5), and new orders dropped to -15 (from -6), pointing to weaker demand conditions.

• Backlogs worsened to -21 (from -12), while capacity utilization decreased to -18 (from -14), suggesting continued slack in operations.

• Employment declined to -15 (from -11), even as wages remained elevated at 13 (though down from 22 in August), reflecting labor cost pressures alongside reduced hiring.

• Local business conditions weakened to -12 (from 0), though expectations for six months ahead improved modestly to -1 (from -10).

• Vendor lead times were steady at 10 (from 11), showing little change in supply chain pressures.

• Prices paid held at 7.22% (from 7.24%), while prices received increased to 4.02% (from 3.14%), indicating input costs remain high but firms are regaining some pricing power.

• Expectations showed softer outlooks for shipments (0 from 13), new orders (8 from 9), and employment (1 from 3), but price growth expectations remained firm, with prices paid at 6.47% and prices received at 4.74%.