The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q2 is 2.7%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.6, 3.8]% and the 80% interval at [0.5, 4.8]%. The Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q3 is 2.5%.

• News from this week's data releases increased the estimates for 2026 Q2 and 2026 Q3 by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively.
• For both quarters, the increases were largely driven by positive contributions from nonfarm payroll employment and ISM manufacturing survey data.