The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q2 is 2.5%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.4, 3.7]% and the 80% interval at [0.4, 4.7]%.

• News from this week's data releases decreased the estimate for 2026 Q2 by 0.1 percentage point.
• A positive contribution from manufacturers' new orders data was more than offset by a negative contribution from personal consumption data, along with a negative impact from data revisions for the quarter.