The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q2 is 2.7%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.6, 3.9]% and the 80% interval at [0.5, 4.9]%. The Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q3 is 2.5%.

• News from this week's data releases increased the estimate for 2026 Q2 by less than 0.1 percentage point and left the estimate for 2026 Q3 unchanged.
• A positive contribution from exports data drove the increase for 2026 Q2.