The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q2 is 2.6%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.6, 3.8]% and the 80% interval at [0.4, 4.8]%.

• News from this week's data releases increased the estimate for 2026 Q2 by 0.1 percentage point.
• Positive contributions from nonfarm payroll employment and housing data drove the increase for the quarter.