The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q2 is 2.6%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.6, 3.8]% and the 80% interval at [0.5, 4.8]%.

• News from this week's data releases left the estimate for 2026 Q2 unchanged.
• Positive contributions from the Empire State Manufacturing Survey and industrial production data were offset by a negative contribution from retail sales data for the quarter.