The final New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q1 was 2.4%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.1, 3.5]% and the 80% interval at [0.1, 4.5]%. The advance estimate of real GDP growth for 2026 Q1, released by the Commerce Department on April 30, was 2.0%.

• The Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q2 is 2.5%. News from this week's data releases decreased the estimate by 0.3 percentage point.
• This decrease was driven largely by negative surprises from GDP and ISM manufacturing survey data as well as parameter revisions.