Q1 2026

Q2 2026

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q1 is 2.3%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.0, 3.4]% and the 80% interval at [0.1, 4.5]%. The Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q2 is 2.6%.

• News from this week's data releases decreased the estimates for 2026 Q1 and 2026 Q2 by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage point, respectively.
• Negative contributions from personal consumption data and data revisions drove the decrease for 2026 Q1, while negative contributions from headline CPI data and parameter revisions drove the decrease for 2026 Q2.