Q1 2026

Q2 2026

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q1 is 2.4%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.2, 3.5]% and the 80% probability interval at [0.2, 4.6]%. The Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q2 is 2.8%.

• News from this week's data releases increased the estimates for 2026 Q1 and 2026 Q2 by 0.3 percentage point and 0.1 percentage point, respectively.
• The increases for both quarters were largely driven by positive impacts from parameter revisions, as well as data on imports, exports, and nonfarm payroll employment.