Q1 2026

Q2 2026

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q1 is 2.1%, with the 50% probability interval at [0.8, 3.2]% and the 80% interval at [-0.1, 4.2]%. The Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q2 is 2.7%.

• News from this week's data releases left the estimates for 2026 Q1 and 2026 Q2 unchanged.
• A positive surprise from import prices was offset by a negative surprise from construction data for 2026 Q1.