Q1 2026

Q2 2026

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q1 is 2.3%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.0, 3.4]% and the 80% interval at [0.1, 4.5]%. The Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q2 is 2.8%.

• News from this week's data releases increased the estimate for 2026 Q2 by 0.2 percentage points and left the estimate for 2026 Q1 unchanged.
• The increase in the estimate for 2026 Q2 was largely driven by positive contributions from parameter revisions and manufacturing survey data.