The Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions (CFSEC) Activity Index fell sharply to -23 in July 2025 from -3 in June, signaling that economic growth was well below trend.

• The Manufacturing Activity Index declined to +3 (from +7), while the Nonmanufacturing Index plunged to -40 (from -9).

• Hiring pace deteriorated further; current hiring index fell to -32, but planned hiring over the next 12 months improved slightly to -17.

• Capital spending expectations rose but remained negative, with the index at -16.

• Labor and nonlabor cost pressure indexes increased but stayed in contraction territory, with cost pressures most acute in energy, equipment, and materials.
• Only 37% of respondents expected increased U.S. economic activity over the next 12 months, indicating sentiment remained pessimistic overall.