The Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions (CFSEC) Activity Index increased to +17 in February from +14 in January, suggesting that economic growth was above trend.

• The CFSEC Manufacturing Activity Index decreased to +18 in February from +24 in January, but the CFSEC Nonmanufacturing Activity Index increased to +13 in February from +7 in the previous month.
• Respondents’ outlooks for the U.S. economy for the next 12 months improved slightly, and remained optimistic on balance. Forty-four percent of respondents expected an increase in economic activity over the next 12 months.
• The pace of current hiring decreased, but respondents’ expectations for the pace of hiring over the next 12 months increased. Both hiring indexes remained negative.
• Respondents’ expectations for the pace of capital spending over the next 12 months increased, but the capital spending expectations index remained negative.
• The labor cost pressures index decreased, as did the nonlabor cost pressures index. Both cost pressures indexes remained negative.

The Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions (CFSEC) Activity Index rose to +13 in January (from -12 in December), indicating a return to above-trend regional growth.

• The CFSEC Manufacturing Activity Index rebounded to +24 (Dec: -24), while the CFSEC Nonmanufacturing Activity Index improved to +5 (Dec: -9), showing broad-based strengthening led by manufacturing.

• 44% of respondents expect U.S. economic activity to increase over the next 12 months, with expectations improving while remaining net optimistic.

• The pace of current hiring increased, but expectations for hiring over the next 12 months decreased; both hiring indexes stayed negative, implying hiring remains net soft despite a better current reading.

• Expectations for capital spending over the next 12 months decreased, and the capital spending expectations index remained negative, pointing to continued caution on investment plans.

• The labor cost pressures index increased and the nonlabor cost pressures index also increased, but both remained negative, consistent with cost pressure trends still subdued even after January’s pickup.

The Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions (CFSEC) Activity Index decreased to -11 in December from -1 in November, indicating that regional economic growth has fallen below trend.

• The CFSEC Manufacturing Activity Index dropped significantly to -23 in December from +20 in November, while the Nonmanufacturing Activity Index saw a modest improvement to -8 from -15, reflecting diverging health between sectors.

• Respondents’ outlooks for the U.S. economy over the next 12 months improved slightly and remained optimistic on balance, with 37% of respondents expecting an increase in economic activity.

• The pace of current hiring increased to -24, and expectations for future hiring also rose to -29; despite the upward movement, both hiring indexes remained in negative territory.

• Among those with increased employment, 16% of the growth was attributed to higher-skilled positions compared to 9% for lower-skilled roles, showing a preference for specialized labor.

• Expectations for the pace of capital spending over the next 12 months increased to -12, though the index remains negative; notably, 80% of those making capital purchases are focusing on capacity expansion.

• Of those making capital investments, 91% reported purchasing equipment and 36% invested in intellectual property, while only 9% directed funds toward structures.

• The labor cost pressures index increased to -47 and the nonlabor cost pressures index rose to -26; while both indicators moved upward, they remains negative, suggesting a continued easing of cost growth.

• Higher-skilled labor saw a larger share of cost increases at 35% compared to 30% for lower-skilled labor, while nonlabor costs were driven primarily by energy (44%) and materials (38%).

The Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions (CFSEC) Activity Index decreased to –4 in November from +17 in October, suggesting that economic growth was near trend.

• The CFSEC Manufacturing Activity Index was unchanged at +17 in November, but the CFSEC Nonmanufacturing Activity Index decreased to -17 in November from +18 in the previous month.
• Respondents’ outlooks for the U.S. economy for the next 12 months improved, turning optimistic on balance. Twenty-six percent of respondents expected an increase in economic activity over the next 12 months.
• The pace of current hiring decreased, but respondents’ expectations for the pace of hiring over the next 12 months increased. Both hiring indexes remained negative.
• Respondents’ expectations for the pace of capital spending over the next 12 months decreased, and the capital spending expectations index remained negative.
• The labor cost pressures index decreased, as did the nonlabor cost pressures index. Both cost pressures indexes remained negative.

The Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions (CFSEC) Activity Index rose to +15 in October from -14 in September, indicating above-trend economic growth after a weak prior month.

• The Manufacturing Activity Index climbed to +14 (Sep: -10), showing a clear improvement in factory conditions.

• The Nonmanufacturing Activity Index also strengthened to +16 (Sep: -19), signaling broader recovery across service sectors.

• Outlooks for the next 12 months improved but remained cautious, with 43% of respondents expecting a decrease in economic activity.

• Current hiring activity increased, but hiring expectations for the next year declined, keeping both hiring indexes negative.

• Capital spending expectations improved but stayed negative overall, reflecting continued investment restraint.

• Labor cost pressures eased while nonlabor cost pressures rose; both remained in contractionary territory, suggesting cost conditions remain tight but uneven.

The Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions (CFSEC) Activity Index fell to -14 in September from +1 in August, signaling below-trend growth and broad deterioration across sectors.

• The Manufacturing Activity Index declined to -10 (Aug: +10), while the Nonmanufacturing Index fell further to -19 (Aug: -5), showing weakness in both segments.

• Outlooks for the next 12 months turned more pessimistic, with 47% of respondents expecting a decrease in overall economic activity.

• Hiring conditions softened as the current hiring index fell further to -26, and hiring expectations moved into negative territory at -38, pointing to weaker labor demand ahead.

• Capital spending expectations improved slightly but remained negative, suggesting firms remain cautious about investment despite some planned increases.

• Labor cost pressures rose, but nonlabor cost pressures eased; both indexes stayed negative, reflecting continued cost constraints despite mixed trends across categories.