Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions: June 2025

Tue, Jun 24, 2025 · 10:00 AM ET Next release · Sep 22, 10:00 AM ET
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The Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions (CFSEC) Activity Index declined to -3 in June from -1 in May, indicating that economic growth remained near trend but with slightly weaker momentum.

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  • The Manufacturing Activity Index rebounded to +6 (from -21), while the Nonmanufacturing Index fell to -9 (from +13).
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  • 53% of respondents expect a decrease in economic activity over the next 12 months, with the overall economic outlook deteriorating.
  • Hiring pace decreased further; both current and expected hiring indexes remained negative.
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  • Capital spending expectations rose but stayed in negative territory.
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  • Labor and nonlabor cost pressures both declined and remained in contraction territory.
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