Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions: August 2025

The Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions (CFSEC) Activity Index improved to +1 in August from -22 in July, suggesting growth was near trend after a sharp contraction the prior month.

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The Manufacturing Activity Index rose to +10 (Jul: +3), while the Nonmanufacturing Index climbed to -5 (Jul: -39), pointing to broad improvement across sectors.

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Hiring conditions improved; the current hiring index remained negative at -17, but hiring expectations turned slightly positive at +1.

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Capital spending expectations weakened further, with the index at -29, signaling firms remain cautious on investment.

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Labor cost pressures eased to -7, while nonlabor costs remained under pressure at -45, with 51% citing higher materials costs and 38% noting energy increases.
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Business sentiment improved modestly, with 35% of respondents expecting higher economic activity over the next 12 months.