The Chicago Fed’s final nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in July is 0.1% MoM and 3.0% YoY, revised up from the initial estimate of a -0.1% MoM drop and an annual gain of 2.9% YoY.

• The nowcast is based on a negative contribution from transaction data (-16 bps) and a positive contribution from Census data (+21 bps). Foot traffic & sentiment data made a negligible contribution.
• The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth is 0.0% MoM and 0.6% YoY (revised down from 0.2% MoM and 0.8% YoY).
• With very little change to prices and only a small sales gain, inflation-adjusted sales are expected to be flat at 0.0% (revised up from -0.3% MoM).