The Chicago Fed's preliminary nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in February is 0.2% MoM and 3.5% YoY, which would be a deceleration from growth of 3.9% YoY in January.

• The February nowcast is based on positive contributions from transactions (+17 bps) and Census data (+11 bps) offset by foot traffic & sentiment data (-8 bps).

• The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth in February is 0.2% MoM and 1.6% YoY (up from 1.3% YoY in January.
• With price growth ahead of nominal sales growth, real sales growth is nowcasted at -0.1% MoM.

The Chicago Fed’s final nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in January is -0.1% MoM and 3.6% YoY, revised up from the preliminary estimate of 0.1% MoM and 4.6% YoY.

• The nowcast is based on negative contributions from transactions (-3.3 bps) and foot traffic & sentiment (-13 bps) while Census data made a positive contribution of 7.4 bps.

• The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth is 0.0% MoM and 1.3% YoY, revised down from the preliminary estimate of 0.0% MoM and 1.4% YoY.
• The inflation-adjusted nowcast of retail sales is -0.1% MoM, down from the preliminary nowcast of 0.1% MoM.

The Chicago Fed's preliminary nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in January is 0.1% MoM and 4.6% YoY, which would be an acceleration from growth of 4.1% YoY in December.

• December retail sales data has yet to be released, and the nowcast is set at 0.5% MoM and 4.1% YoY, slightly lower than the 0.6% MoM increase in the final December nowcast.
• The January nowcast is based on positive contributions from transactions (+23 bps) and Census data (+14 bps), while foot traffic & sentiment made a negative contribution of -25 bps.

• The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth in January is 0.0% MoM and 1.4% YoY (down from 1.7% YoY in December).
• The inflation-adjusted nowcast of retail sales is 0.1% MoM as there was no change in prices.

The Chicago Fed’s final nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in December is 0.6% MoM and 4.1% YoY, revised up from the preliminary estimate of 0.4% MoM and 3.8% YoY.

• The nowcast is based on positive contributions from transactions (+32 bps) and Census data (+21 bps), while foot traffic & sentiment made a negligible contribution of +2 bp

• The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth is 0.3% MoM and 1.7% YoY, revised up from the preliminary estimate of 0.2% MoM and 1.5% YoY.
• The inflation-adjusted nowcast of retail sales is 0.3% MoM, up slightly from 0.2% MoM, as nominal sales growth outpaces price growth.

The Chicago Fed's preliminary nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in December is 0.4% MoM and 3.8% YoY, which would be an deceleration from growth of 4.3% YoY in November.

• November retail sales data has yet to be released, and the nowcast is set at 0.3% MoM and 4.3% YoY.
• The December nowcast is based on positive contributions from transactions (+22 bps) and Census data (+14 bps), while foot traffic & sentiment made a negligible contribution of 3 bp.
• The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth is 0.2% MoM and 1.5% YoY.

• The inflation-adjusted nowcast of retail sales is 0.2% MoM as nominal sales growth outpaced price growth.

The Chicago Fed’s final nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in November is 0.3% MoM and 4.3% YoY, revised down from the preliminary estimate of 0.4% MoM and 4.4% YoY.

• The nowcast is based on positive contributions from transactions (17+ bps) and Census data (+18 bps), while foot traffic & sentiment made a negligible contribution of -2 bp.

• The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth is 0.3% MoM and 1.8% YoY, revised down from the preliminary estimate of 0.4% MoM.
• The inflation-adjusted nowcast of retail sales is 0.0% MoM as price growth is forecasted to account for basically all of the growth in retail sales.