The Chicago Fed’s initial nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in July is -0.1% MoM and 2.9% YoY which would be the lowest since September 2024.

• The nowcast is based on negative contributions from foot traffic & sentiment (-13 bps) and transaction (-17 bps) with census data contributing 25 bps.
• The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth is 0.2% MoM and 0.8% YoY.
• With goods prices rising, the inflation-adjusted nowcast is even weaker at -0.3% MoM.