Chicago Fed Advance Retail Trade Summary (CARTS): June 2025 (Final)

Wed, Jul 16, 2025 · 8:30 AM ET Next release · Nov 6, 8:30 AM ET
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The Chicago Fed’s final nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in June is +0.4% MoM and +3.3% YoY, revised up from the preliminary estimate of +0.3% MoM.

  • The nowcast is based almost entirely on transaction data (43 bps contribution) while foot traffic & sentiment data offset (-7 bps contribution).
  • The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth is 0.3% MoM and 0.4% YoY, revised up from 0.1% MoM and 0.2% YoY.
  • With prices and sales growth about equal, the inflation adjusted rise in retail sales was basically nothing (0.0% MoM).
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