The Chicago Fed’s initial nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in June is +0.3 MoM and 3.3% YoY which would be down from 3.5% YoY in May.

• The final May nowcast was off significantly as actual retail sales were reported at -0.3% MoM, well below the +0.3% MoM CARTS estimate.
• The nowcast is based on positive contributions from transactions and census data where are partly offset by foot traffic & sentiment.
• The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth is 0.1% MoM and 0.2% YoY.
• With prices basically flat, the inflation adjusted retail sales growth rate would be +0.3% MoM.